Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

Issue 125 – The $5 Million Question: What’s Actually Worth Owning in New York Right Now?

The New York real estate market is entering a period where the old rules of valuation are becoming less reliable. Price per square foot and comparable sales still matter, but buyers are weighing those factors differently — rewarding some attributes while quietly discounting others. The question is no longer simply, “What did the apartment downstairs sell for?” It’s “What are buyers willing to pay a premium for now — and what have they stopped paying for?”

I could identify at least seven factors being repriced in Manhattan right now: outdoor space, views/greenery, turnkey condition, monthly carrying costs, new development versus resale, second-home ownership, and the increasingly important distinction between a great apartment and a great building.

Confusing matters for buyers is that the NYC market is sending contradictory signals. Manhattan inventory is changing by price band, mortgage rates remain challenging nationally, and NYC’s new pied-à-terre tax is creating another potential dividing line in how buyers assess ownership costs.  

In the luxury zone, one way to test those shifting valuations is what I call “The $5-Million-Question.”

I can take $5 million and show clients what that buys today in six completely different versions of New York: Think:

  • $5M on Central Park West
  • $5M downtown
  • $5M in Brooklyn
  • $5M in a new development
  • $5M in a great prewar co-op
  • $5M for something compromised but spectacular

Same amount of money. Same city. Radically different value.

The questions to ponder are:

  • Which one would I buy?
  • Which one would I avoid?
  • Which one has the greatest upside?
  • And which one will be easiest to sell five years from now?

That comparison is more revealing than a market-wide statistic because it shows what the same $5 million actually buys — and what it might be worth to the next buyer.

On the surface, the questions are simple. In practice, answering them requires a sophisticated analysis — price per square foot, carrying costs, taxes, liquidity, buyer pool, neighborhood trajectory, architectural quality, and exit strategy. Buyers should seek out an expert broker not only for information but also for interpretation.

For a long time, value was assessed through familiar metrics: price per square foot, comparable sales, neighborhood, floor, light, views, condition, and building pedigree. Those factors still matter. But buyers are now weighing them differently. We are in a repricing phase — not necessarily of New York City as a whole, but of the individual components that define its value.

At Central Park West, $5 million typically trades square footage for permanence: park frontage, architectural significance, scarcity, and long-term stability.

Downtown, the same budget may secure a more contemporary product — larger windows, amenities, and outdoor space — but often at a higher price per square foot and with higher ongoing costs.

In a new development, $5 million buys condition, services, and immediacy. The question is how much of that price reflects a “new development premium,” and whether the resale market will recognize it when the time comes to exit.

In Brooklyn, the same capital can deliver scale, outdoor space, and architectural character that would be significantly more expensive in Manhattan.

None of these is inherently superior. The real questions are: What are you actually buying, and who will want it next? That second part is often underweighted: Which market is offering more rewards?

Based on buyer behavior, several attributes are becoming more defensible:

Light and views are not replicable. While layouts can be changed, exposure and outlook cannot be transformed.

Functional outdoor space is valuable. Usable terraces connected to living areas are materially more valuable than secondary or awkwardly accessed outdoor areas.

Strong floor plans are key. The pandemic reinforced that usability matters as much as size. Proportion, flow, and flexibility are now critical.

Condition has always mattered — now more than ever. High construction costs and uncertainty have increased demand for finished product. However, there is a ceiling — buyers will not indefinitely overpay for someone else’s design choices.

Low carrying friction is persuasive. Taxes, common charges, assessments, and long-term building health are now central to valuation. High monthly costs can materially impact resale liquidity.

Scarcity can be the tipping point. A strong apartment does not need to be perfect. It needs to be difficult to replicate.

So, where would I be most cautious today?

I would be disciplined about paying a premium purely for newness. New does not hold value on its own — architecture, location, and scarcity do. I would closely evaluate buildings where carrying costs are disconnected from underlying asset value. I would avoid trophy pricing unless there is a true trophy attribute. And I would be careful about pricing that is anchored primarily to renovation cost.

A $2 million renovation does not translate into a $2 million increase in value.

The market does not reimburse cost. It prices outcome.

If I were allocating funds at this level, the guiding principles should be: light over finishes, proportion over decoration, irreplaceable views over amenity packages, and ultimately, best-in-class units in proven buildings over average units in trending ones.

The strongest purchases do two things at once: they function as exceptional homes today and remain desirable assets tomorrow. That means thinking about the exit before the entry — and recognizing that New York isn’t one market, but a collection of micro-markets defined by neighborhood, block, building, floor, and orientation.

While real estate is inherently emotional, value is what remains when emotion fades.

Whether the budget is $1 million, $5 million, or $25 million, the question is ultimately the same: What is actually worth owning?

That is the question the next phase of the market will answer — and it will reward analysis over generalization.

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