Issue 104 – 2024: A Year of Reflection and Laying the Groundwork for the Unleashing of 2025

To describe 2024 as a challenging year would be an understatement. It posed significant trials, not only in the real estate market but also in the realms of leadership, geopolitics, social justice, and governmental shifts. When you condense all these factors and throw them into a fast-paced environment, it feels akin to being shot out of a cannon and landing in unfamiliar territory. This whirlwind experience has compelled everyone to innovate, seize new opportunities, and embrace change, ultimately creating value in various dimensions — not just real estate.

After nearly two decades of impressive leadership at my firm, the time has come for a new generation to emerge, rejuvenating and recalibrating our approach. This transition is not about retreating to the sidelines; it’s about returning stronger and more proactive, making tough decisions, and communicating transparently. This is the essence of leadership — effecting successful change and solidifying our position as the leading brokerage in the country.

Being progressive does not equate to being “woke.” It signifies a strategic approach rooted in analytics, technology, and engineering, a more efficient business model that yields returns for brokers and investors alike. To achieve this, it is vital to understand people’s needs, fostering an environment that retains top talent while navigating a Federal Reserve that acknowledges the necessity for affordable housing solutions.

Policies that incentivize maximum returns on illiquid assets are essential, especially when economic conditions seem tight due to inflation and job market fluctuations. Although firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have reported better-than-expected earnings, this does not automatically translate into benefits for the real estate sector. We inhabit a world that craves instant gratification and demands the utmost value for earned dollars — a world that calls for change on local, global, and environmental fronts.

Reflecting on the events of 2024, I am more convinced than ever of our responsibility to ensure that our legacy enables future generations to dream bigger and recognize that their voices can and do effect change. As I stand on this platform, discussing real estate, I see it as an opportunity to advocate for a more holistic transformation. The real estate sector continues to astonish me with its ongoing performance.

As we approach the end of the year, the past few weeks have been among the most fruitful in terms of transactions I have witnessed all year. Why is this the case? I suspect that people are beginning to realize that market dynamics will shift in the new year, with interest rates likely to decrease along with fluctuating sale prices and inventory. It seems prudent to capitalize on opportunities now, even if it means accepting slightly higher rates with plans for refinancing as rates adjust downward, in line with Powell’s predictions for 2025.

The 50-basis-point adjustment in early October reignited our sales market, leading to reductions in asking prices. This makes participation almost irresistible, particularly when it includes refinancing intentions. The Federal Reserve anticipates four additional rate cuts over the next year, each by 25 basis points. If this occurs, I believe people will feel comfortable acquiring property and financing it at higher rates with plans to refinance later.

I find myself invigorated by change these days. While I have not always welcomed it, I am immensely proud of the changemakers who have dared to step forward when many prefer to stay in their comfort zones. Real estate is a unique mechanism where fear and hope coexist within the same bricks and mortar.

Throughout this past year, we have witnessed significant changes in the real estate landscape, from National Association of Realtors (NAR) adjustments in commissions to shifts in rental laws. Yet, the ultimate response to these developments has been that sellers and brokers maintain the status quo, which has played out consistently. We recognize that imposing restrictions only reinforces the truth that people do not have to comply. We have seen interest rates soar to 8%, but they are now returning from those peaks, and we anticipate further reductions. While fluctuations may occur, the overall sales market has undergone considerable capitulation, presenting fantastic opportunities for prospective buyers.

I want to express my gratitude to all those who have courageously stepped forward and allowed me to partner with them in the buying or selling process, even when the climate was less than favorable. Together, we will witness the results and returns that follow.

This past year has been a year of profound learning — a time for all of us to reflect on who we are and how we choose to navigate this new world. I wish you a meaningful, joyful, and loving end to the year, and may 2025 bring forth all that was previously lacking.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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