Issue 104 – 2024: A Year of Reflection and Laying the Groundwork for the Unleashing of 2025

To describe 2024 as a challenging year would be an understatement. It posed significant trials, not only in the real estate market but also in the realms of leadership, geopolitics, social justice, and governmental shifts. When you condense all these factors and throw them into a fast-paced environment, it feels akin to being shot out of a cannon and landing in unfamiliar territory. This whirlwind experience has compelled everyone to innovate, seize new opportunities, and embrace change, ultimately creating value in various dimensions — not just real estate.

After nearly two decades of impressive leadership at my firm, the time has come for a new generation to emerge, rejuvenating and recalibrating our approach. This transition is not about retreating to the sidelines; it’s about returning stronger and more proactive, making tough decisions, and communicating transparently. This is the essence of leadership — effecting successful change and solidifying our position as the leading brokerage in the country.

Being progressive does not equate to being “woke.” It signifies a strategic approach rooted in analytics, technology, and engineering, a more efficient business model that yields returns for brokers and investors alike. To achieve this, it is vital to understand people’s needs, fostering an environment that retains top talent while navigating a Federal Reserve that acknowledges the necessity for affordable housing solutions.

Policies that incentivize maximum returns on illiquid assets are essential, especially when economic conditions seem tight due to inflation and job market fluctuations. Although firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have reported better-than-expected earnings, this does not automatically translate into benefits for the real estate sector. We inhabit a world that craves instant gratification and demands the utmost value for earned dollars — a world that calls for change on local, global, and environmental fronts.

Reflecting on the events of 2024, I am more convinced than ever of our responsibility to ensure that our legacy enables future generations to dream bigger and recognize that their voices can and do effect change. As I stand on this platform, discussing real estate, I see it as an opportunity to advocate for a more holistic transformation. The real estate sector continues to astonish me with its ongoing performance.

As we approach the end of the year, the past few weeks have been among the most fruitful in terms of transactions I have witnessed all year. Why is this the case? I suspect that people are beginning to realize that market dynamics will shift in the new year, with interest rates likely to decrease along with fluctuating sale prices and inventory. It seems prudent to capitalize on opportunities now, even if it means accepting slightly higher rates with plans for refinancing as rates adjust downward, in line with Powell’s predictions for 2025.

The 50-basis-point adjustment in early October reignited our sales market, leading to reductions in asking prices. This makes participation almost irresistible, particularly when it includes refinancing intentions. The Federal Reserve anticipates four additional rate cuts over the next year, each by 25 basis points. If this occurs, I believe people will feel comfortable acquiring property and financing it at higher rates with plans to refinance later.

I find myself invigorated by change these days. While I have not always welcomed it, I am immensely proud of the changemakers who have dared to step forward when many prefer to stay in their comfort zones. Real estate is a unique mechanism where fear and hope coexist within the same bricks and mortar.

Throughout this past year, we have witnessed significant changes in the real estate landscape, from National Association of Realtors (NAR) adjustments in commissions to shifts in rental laws. Yet, the ultimate response to these developments has been that sellers and brokers maintain the status quo, which has played out consistently. We recognize that imposing restrictions only reinforces the truth that people do not have to comply. We have seen interest rates soar to 8%, but they are now returning from those peaks, and we anticipate further reductions. While fluctuations may occur, the overall sales market has undergone considerable capitulation, presenting fantastic opportunities for prospective buyers.

I want to express my gratitude to all those who have courageously stepped forward and allowed me to partner with them in the buying or selling process, even when the climate was less than favorable. Together, we will witness the results and returns that follow.

This past year has been a year of profound learning — a time for all of us to reflect on who we are and how we choose to navigate this new world. I wish you a meaningful, joyful, and loving end to the year, and may 2025 bring forth all that was previously lacking.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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