Issue 104 – 2024: A Year of Reflection and Laying the Groundwork for the Unleashing of 2025

To describe 2024 as a challenging year would be an understatement. It posed significant trials, not only in the real estate market but also in the realms of leadership, geopolitics, social justice, and governmental shifts. When you condense all these factors and throw them into a fast-paced environment, it feels akin to being shot out of a cannon and landing in unfamiliar territory. This whirlwind experience has compelled everyone to innovate, seize new opportunities, and embrace change, ultimately creating value in various dimensions — not just real estate.

After nearly two decades of impressive leadership at my firm, the time has come for a new generation to emerge, rejuvenating and recalibrating our approach. This transition is not about retreating to the sidelines; it’s about returning stronger and more proactive, making tough decisions, and communicating transparently. This is the essence of leadership — effecting successful change and solidifying our position as the leading brokerage in the country.

Being progressive does not equate to being “woke.” It signifies a strategic approach rooted in analytics, technology, and engineering, a more efficient business model that yields returns for brokers and investors alike. To achieve this, it is vital to understand people’s needs, fostering an environment that retains top talent while navigating a Federal Reserve that acknowledges the necessity for affordable housing solutions.

Policies that incentivize maximum returns on illiquid assets are essential, especially when economic conditions seem tight due to inflation and job market fluctuations. Although firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have reported better-than-expected earnings, this does not automatically translate into benefits for the real estate sector. We inhabit a world that craves instant gratification and demands the utmost value for earned dollars — a world that calls for change on local, global, and environmental fronts.

Reflecting on the events of 2024, I am more convinced than ever of our responsibility to ensure that our legacy enables future generations to dream bigger and recognize that their voices can and do effect change. As I stand on this platform, discussing real estate, I see it as an opportunity to advocate for a more holistic transformation. The real estate sector continues to astonish me with its ongoing performance.

As we approach the end of the year, the past few weeks have been among the most fruitful in terms of transactions I have witnessed all year. Why is this the case? I suspect that people are beginning to realize that market dynamics will shift in the new year, with interest rates likely to decrease along with fluctuating sale prices and inventory. It seems prudent to capitalize on opportunities now, even if it means accepting slightly higher rates with plans for refinancing as rates adjust downward, in line with Powell’s predictions for 2025.

The 50-basis-point adjustment in early October reignited our sales market, leading to reductions in asking prices. This makes participation almost irresistible, particularly when it includes refinancing intentions. The Federal Reserve anticipates four additional rate cuts over the next year, each by 25 basis points. If this occurs, I believe people will feel comfortable acquiring property and financing it at higher rates with plans to refinance later.

I find myself invigorated by change these days. While I have not always welcomed it, I am immensely proud of the changemakers who have dared to step forward when many prefer to stay in their comfort zones. Real estate is a unique mechanism where fear and hope coexist within the same bricks and mortar.

Throughout this past year, we have witnessed significant changes in the real estate landscape, from National Association of Realtors (NAR) adjustments in commissions to shifts in rental laws. Yet, the ultimate response to these developments has been that sellers and brokers maintain the status quo, which has played out consistently. We recognize that imposing restrictions only reinforces the truth that people do not have to comply. We have seen interest rates soar to 8%, but they are now returning from those peaks, and we anticipate further reductions. While fluctuations may occur, the overall sales market has undergone considerable capitulation, presenting fantastic opportunities for prospective buyers.

I want to express my gratitude to all those who have courageously stepped forward and allowed me to partner with them in the buying or selling process, even when the climate was less than favorable. Together, we will witness the results and returns that follow.

This past year has been a year of profound learning — a time for all of us to reflect on who we are and how we choose to navigate this new world. I wish you a meaningful, joyful, and loving end to the year, and may 2025 bring forth all that was previously lacking.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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