Issue 101 – Election Madness: Navigating the Real Estate Ripple Effect

Election years always bring a degree of chaos, and the impact on the real estate market is no exception. As we approach Election Day, the effect on housing and mortgage rates is becoming evident. This phenomenon stems from three main factors: uncertainty, policy expectations, and consumer confidence.

Uncertainty about election outcomes can cause buyers and sellers to either delay or rush decisions. Policy expectations related to housing regulations, taxes, and subsidies also influence market behavior. Lastly, consumer confidence impacts the market, as people may postpone major purchases until they feel more secure about the country’s direction.

Both candidates are focused on housing. Initially, Trump and Biden proposed policies that could significantly affect the real estate market. Kamala Harris, now the official Democratic Party candidate, recently announced a proposed $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers and a commitment to creating three million new homes.

According to a recent article in The Real Deal, Harris posted her vision on X: “Every American deserves affordable housing — yet the cost is too high in communities across our nation. That is why our Administration just took another step to lower costs by announcing actions to limit rent increases and build more affordable homes.”

Democrats generally support measures like rent caps and increased housing construction, which have met resistance from landlord groups.

Trump, who is familiar with the industry, aims to extend policies from his 2017 tax law, which expires in 2025, and provide additional tax incentives to promote homeownership. Trump wants to increase the standard deduction while the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction.  Currently, SALT allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct up to $10,000 of property, sales, or income taxes already paid to state and local governments; initially, the SALT deduction was unlimited. In theory, the deduction exists to offset some federal taxpayer liability by excluding income already taken in taxes for state and local government services. The $10,000 SALT cap hit high-cost, high-tax blue states such as New York and New Jersey the hardest — a key concern for those in New York City.

Historically, President Biden planned to reverse parts of this law and increase corporate taxes. Should she win the election, Harris is expected to follow suit.

Referencing the same article by TRD, “Biden wanted to restrict the 1031 tax exchange program, which allows investors to defer taxes by rolling their capital gains on recent property sales into new properties. Most recently, Biden pitched limiting the deferral of such gains to $500,000 for each taxpayer.” While we cannot predict if Harris would mimic Biden’s exact policies, it is safe to say she will err on the side of his policies as opposed to Trump’s.

Conversely, Trump’s agenda includes lowering mortgage rates by reducing inflation, though this is primarily controlled by the Federal Reserve, which sets target interest rates for the financial system. Additionally, Trump seeks to limit foreign investment in U.S. real estate, especially from China, and promote luxury developments.

An article by Bankrate indicates that housing prices rise in election years at a higher rate than non-election years. However, it’s nuanced. Even though election years may feel more volatile, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a large listing service, says, “Historically the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election year compared to other years.” She goes on to say that it comes down to demographics and the economy.

In particular, unemployment and interest rates are more important than what is happening on the national political scene.

Given that average mortgage rates are more than double what they were in 2020 and 2021, and home prices remain sky-high, housing activity remains stagnant, with existing home sales at their lowest since 2020.

Conversely, purchases arising from a ‘fear of missing out’ can drive up prices and heighten expectations of strong house-price gains.

Whether the Democrats or the Republicans win, the outcome is likely to impact the real estate market because there’s going to be a backlash to whoever is in power.

Ultimately, the election outcome may influence real estate, with reactions varying depending on which party wins. While election years bring volatility, the turbulence is temporary. Renters, buyers, and sellers may wait for the election results before making significant moves, knowing that prices and rates could fluctuate during this period.

It’s always worth remembering that past performance should not be taken as a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not get back what you put in. You should continue to hold cash for your short-term needs.

Let’s face it, a drop in mortgage rates — with the possibility of a continued reduction in the Fed’s interest rates — will be the driving force for many who are priced out by the current numbers. Is that going to be enough to create an uptick? It’s still to be seen, but the ability for people to seize an opportunity becomes much more palpable, and in the end, real estate may become one of the most effective vehicles for diversification in a volatile climate.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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