Issue 101 – Election Madness: Navigating the Real Estate Ripple Effect

Election years always bring a degree of chaos, and the impact on the real estate market is no exception. As we approach Election Day, the effect on housing and mortgage rates is becoming evident. This phenomenon stems from three main factors: uncertainty, policy expectations, and consumer confidence.

Uncertainty about election outcomes can cause buyers and sellers to either delay or rush decisions. Policy expectations related to housing regulations, taxes, and subsidies also influence market behavior. Lastly, consumer confidence impacts the market, as people may postpone major purchases until they feel more secure about the country’s direction.

Both candidates are focused on housing. Initially, Trump and Biden proposed policies that could significantly affect the real estate market. Kamala Harris, now the official Democratic Party candidate, recently announced a proposed $25,000 subsidy for first-time homebuyers and a commitment to creating three million new homes.

According to a recent article in The Real Deal, Harris posted her vision on X: “Every American deserves affordable housing — yet the cost is too high in communities across our nation. That is why our Administration just took another step to lower costs by announcing actions to limit rent increases and build more affordable homes.”

Democrats generally support measures like rent caps and increased housing construction, which have met resistance from landlord groups.

Trump, who is familiar with the industry, aims to extend policies from his 2017 tax law, which expires in 2025, and provide additional tax incentives to promote homeownership. Trump wants to increase the standard deduction while the SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction.  Currently, SALT allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct up to $10,000 of property, sales, or income taxes already paid to state and local governments; initially, the SALT deduction was unlimited. In theory, the deduction exists to offset some federal taxpayer liability by excluding income already taken in taxes for state and local government services. The $10,000 SALT cap hit high-cost, high-tax blue states such as New York and New Jersey the hardest — a key concern for those in New York City.

Historically, President Biden planned to reverse parts of this law and increase corporate taxes. Should she win the election, Harris is expected to follow suit.

Referencing the same article by TRD, “Biden wanted to restrict the 1031 tax exchange program, which allows investors to defer taxes by rolling their capital gains on recent property sales into new properties. Most recently, Biden pitched limiting the deferral of such gains to $500,000 for each taxpayer.” While we cannot predict if Harris would mimic Biden’s exact policies, it is safe to say she will err on the side of his policies as opposed to Trump’s.

Conversely, Trump’s agenda includes lowering mortgage rates by reducing inflation, though this is primarily controlled by the Federal Reserve, which sets target interest rates for the financial system. Additionally, Trump seeks to limit foreign investment in U.S. real estate, especially from China, and promote luxury developments.

An article by Bankrate indicates that housing prices rise in election years at a higher rate than non-election years. However, it’s nuanced. Even though election years may feel more volatile, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a large listing service, says, “Historically the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election year compared to other years.” She goes on to say that it comes down to demographics and the economy.

In particular, unemployment and interest rates are more important than what is happening on the national political scene.

Given that average mortgage rates are more than double what they were in 2020 and 2021, and home prices remain sky-high, housing activity remains stagnant, with existing home sales at their lowest since 2020.

Conversely, purchases arising from a ‘fear of missing out’ can drive up prices and heighten expectations of strong house-price gains.

Whether the Democrats or the Republicans win, the outcome is likely to impact the real estate market because there’s going to be a backlash to whoever is in power.

Ultimately, the election outcome may influence real estate, with reactions varying depending on which party wins. While election years bring volatility, the turbulence is temporary. Renters, buyers, and sellers may wait for the election results before making significant moves, knowing that prices and rates could fluctuate during this period.

It’s always worth remembering that past performance should not be taken as a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, and you may not get back what you put in. You should continue to hold cash for your short-term needs.

Let’s face it, a drop in mortgage rates — with the possibility of a continued reduction in the Fed’s interest rates — will be the driving force for many who are priced out by the current numbers. Is that going to be enough to create an uptick? It’s still to be seen, but the ability for people to seize an opportunity becomes much more palpable, and in the end, real estate may become one of the most effective vehicles for diversification in a volatile climate.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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