Issue 114 – Let’s Talk about Luxury – It’s Lovely at the Top

The New York City real estate market has entered the fall season with renewed momentum. Sentiment among buyers and sellers remains cautiously optimistic, despite ongoing political headwinds.

In a market trends article published early last month, The Real Deal, the leading real estate trade publication in the country, reported that luxury properties have experienced a markup, citing an industry expert as saying, “The appetite for luxury property seems almost unabated.”

 Activity was especially strong at the very top end of the market, with the median price now exceeding $6.5 million, representing a nearly 18% increase from last year.  Almost 70% of those transactions were all-cash deals. Global and domestic demand for ultra-luxury trophy properties remains strong, highlighted by several significant Downtown transactions, including a record-setting $87 million penthouse property at 140 Jane Street that recently went under contract in the dead of summer.

So, let’s talk luxury! Technically, I consider the luxury real estate market to be anything over $4 million, but ultra luxury is a somewhat arbitrary designation – stratospheric! Think: 150 Charles Street’s penthouse unit that sold earlier in the year for a whopping $60 million, and 80 Clarkson, a duplex penthouse that went into contract for $87.5 million, to name a couple of recent uber-luxury deals.

When the Olshun’s NYC Luxury Market Report indicated that there had been just 10 deals over $10 million in the first quarter of 2025, I realized that my team had completed six of those 10 deals — a truly eye-opening realization about what we had accomplished so swiftly!

There’s no doubt momentum has been accelerating: There were more $30 million-plus home sales below 34th Street in the past five years than in the previous decade!

According to Olshun’s Report from early September, 16 contracts were signed in Manhattan at or above $4 million. Condos outsold co-ops by an 11-to-3 margin. These totals are in line with the 10-year average of 16.5 contracts for the week preceding Labor Day. It was the fourth-best August, with 92 contracts signed since 2006.

Another 15 contracts over $4 million closed just the following week, including the top sale at 111 West 57th Street for $22 million.

Typically, this market is an untouchable demographic — one that has means well beyond any person‘s grasp of luxury, comprised of wealthy entrepreneurs or CEOs of thriving (oftentimes, start-up) companies.

My advice to those with such substantial buying power is to purchase when nobody else is doing so, and to buy something that will hold value in a premium neighborhood. And I encourage sellers of luxury properties this season to be strategic about how you position the property, irrespective of the market climate. ‘Read the room’ in terms of how things are being absorbed and accepted, and how to best structure the sale by underpricing to drive bidding or put fat on the deal with room for movement.

Always keep in mind that strong properties will command strong prices if they are turnkey and rare in location and availability. As temperatures dip, and if interest rates come down as projected, product and negotiation abilities will be reduced. That’s especially true in these Make-A buildings, where there’s never a replicated product type.

Case in point: 800 Fifth Avenue, a luxury residential rental tower, sold to Miki Naftali for $810 million, according to the New York Post.

“That is record pricing for a building of its size — 33 stories,” an industry source said of 800 Fifth Avenue. “And it’s also perhaps the best Manhattan location for a super high-end condo development. Really, can you beat Fifth Avenue and East 61st Street?”

Naftali plans to demolish the building for a sexy new condo tower. “We’re thrilled that after fifty years as the best rental building in the city, 800 Fifth will be transformed in the next incarnation to the best new condominium,” he said in a statement.

In my estimation, the new units will come to market between $10,000 and $11,000 per square foot.

Meanwhile, The Real Deal recently reported that the luxury market was slowing down, pointing to a condo at 111 Murray Street that sold for $9.2 million, down from the original $9.5 million asking price in February. The mid-September Olshun’s Report showed that the top 10 deals were all under $10 million, a rare occurrence in Manhattan.

Still, The Real Deal reported that the homes on the Top Ten list for that week had a combined asking price of $70 million, for an average price of $6.4 million and a median of $5.4 million. That’s well within the luxury market price point.

So, while every week may not break records, the overall bigger picture suggests that global capital confidence continues to reinforce the idea of New York City as a reliable haven for wealth and a long-term store of value. 

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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