Issue 113 – Where is the Real Estate Market Heading? The Big Questions

As we head into fall, I am often asked about where the real estate market is heading. This year, numerous competing issues are making it difficult for me to predict exactly what will unfold. The spotty movements of this past summer raise some very big questions that we need to have answered before knowing how everything will shake out.

In general, since the pandemic, people generally value their downtime much more. Summer is a time of respite for many, eager to take a break from the stress and intensity of work—and news of all the executive orders, proposed legislation, global politics, and world wars.

Post-pandemic demand for real estate was fueled by one of the biggest run-ups in history, resulting in the typical selling times for property no longer existing and being seasonally defined. However, inflation and mortgage rate hikes have forced people to wait on the sidelines.

I think many sellers are hoping that the president’s consideration of eliminating the capital gains tax may provide a significant opportunity for those who have been sitting on properties for decades to reap a solid return on their investment.  

As such, it would allow them to cultivate true wealth creation by saving on considerably high capital gains, which in turn becomes the catalyst for people to be able to buy and sell with a higher profit. As with all political maneuvers, it remains to be seen how this will ultimately play out.

CNBC breaks it down this way:  

  • Under current law, property sales are subject to capital gains taxes once profits exceed $250,000 for single filers or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly.
  • Since 1997, those thresholds have never been indexed for inflation, and more home sales are subject to capital gains as property values rise.

“Homeowners who have lived in a home as their primary residence for at least 24 months in the five years before the sale receive an exemption on the first $250,000 of gains for individuals and $500,000 for married couples filing jointly,” Newsweek reports.

The National Association of REALTORS’ research has found that nearly 29 million homeowners, roughly one-third of the market, already face potential capital gains taxes if they sell, “and that number is expected to climb sharply over the next decade.”

“These tax burdens create a ‘lock-in effect,’ especially for seniors, discouraging people from selling and keeping much-needed homes off the market,” Newsweek summarizes.

This proposal aside, at the end of the day, we are dealing with a much more fundamental issue in NYC: the mayoral race. Until it is decided who is elected, we won’t know what is going to happen here, especially whether the potential new legislature could lean towards socialism or capitalism. Ultimately, who is in power will determine how the city values real estate as an asset.

If the Democratic nominee, Zohran Mamdani, wins the election, potential real estate impacts involve rent stabilization and affordability, such as a rent freeze for rent-stabilized apartments. This could potentially disincentivize property owners from investing in maintenance and improvements, impacting the quality of NYC housing stock.

Mamdani also claims to want to invest in 200,000 publicly subsidized affordable housing units over a 10-year period. Some experts suggest this large-scale construction effort would be wrought with challenges.

More importantly, according to CNN, Mamdani’s real estate proposals are sending jitters through the NYC luxury real estate market. His proposed “millionaire tax” would prompt luxury home buyers and owners to consider moving out of state, which could significantly impact this market segment. Additionally, developers and investors would also face reduced incentives.

Fox Business concurs, citing a real estate expert who reports, “Consumers are taking a step back to wait and see how this plays out, because if a socialist is elected mayor of New York City, I don’t think it’s going to be good for the long-term health of our local economy and the real estate industry.”

While Andrew Cuomo and current mayor Eric Adams are still duking it out as NYC’s independent frontrunners, a win for Cuomo would ostensibly mean prioritizing and streamlining development processes, potentially leading to faster approvals and fewer regulatory roadblocks. He is also a proponent of zoning changes, which can lead to gentrification in some areas. As such, Politico suggests the well-heeled industry is rallying around his bid for mayor.

And lastly, if Adams secures a win, he would likely continue to keep housing supply a central focus, particularly with his “City of Yes” initiative, which aims to build up to 80,000 new homes in 15 years, and his “Manhattan Plan” to add 100,000 new homes in that borough over the next decade. Like Cuomo, his plans would include zoning changes, massive conversions, and encouraging development around transit hubs. Adams also supports allowing accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and eliminating parking mandates for new construction to facilitate the creation of housing. According to a NY1 segment this summer, “Mayor Eric Adams may be the new favorite candidate of the city’s business and real estate community.”

If Adams is successful in increasing housing supply and affordability, he could possibly slow the rapid real estate appreciation NYC has seen lately, especially in the luxury market, according to NY1. “Some wealthy New Yorkers have expressed concerns about potential tax increases or changes in policy under a different administration, potentially accelerating their plans to move outside of NYC.”

Lastly, the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, would likely modify or repeal Adams’ “City of Yes” initiative and revert zoning to its previous state. This could mean a slowdown or halt to development projects already in motion and deter others from starting at all.

Sliwa does suggest ending unfair property tax increases on working-class owners and forcing large corporate landlords to pay more. He might also repeal the 2019 laws targeted at rent-stabilized landlords.

According to the New York Post, in essence, “a Sliwa victory could lead to a shift in real estate priorities, with a stronger emphasis on local zoning control, fair taxation for homeowners and renters, and the revitalization of existing housing stock, possibly impacting large-scale development and corporate real estate interests.” 

As we watch all this play out, eager buyers and sellers are sitting on the sidelines, ready to cast their lines once the direction of potential changes and local initiatives becomes clear. Only time will tell, but one thing is already clear: The real estate market in NYC is always a key focal point, not just locally, but nationally and globally. All eyes will be on NYC this fall, keen on seeing what transpires and how real estate experts guide clients to maximize their value.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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