Issue 102 – Fall Real Estate Market Forecast: Bright Prospects Ahead Amid Anticipated Rate Drops

It’s that lovely time again: The leaves are falling; interest rates are falling… Autumn is in the air.

As we head into pumpkin spice and sweater weather, it’s time to look ahead and see how the rest of the year might play out in terms of real estate.

Along with the season’s first chill began to fall upon us, we saw some positive impact on mortgage rates in mid-September — a nice sharp decline in recent months, reflecting growing odds on a lower Fed fund rate soon.

Also at that time, the buzz had been that the fall market would to be predicated on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and whether it would have any additional positive impact on mortgage rates. The Fed rate doesn’t necessarily guarantee lower mortgage rates, however; in fact, the information released on September 18th could have caused tremendous upheaval.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.50% rather than the anticipated 0.25% — but the bond market lost ground, at least initially. There are two potential reasons for this: the dot plot, a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Hayden “Jay” Powell’s press conference. The dot plot left bonds in slightly better shape, but not so Powell’s proposal, which failed to show visible concern about the labor market and stayed clear of declaring victory on inflation.

Combine all that with a bond market that had been in a relatively aggressive position heading into “Fed Day,” and the moderately weaker closing levels are about as boring and logical a result as anyone could imagine.

Time will tell how the Fed’s punting goes for buyers who will continue to go against the grain given the opportunity rush — an approach that may still be well worth taking.

Regardless, downtown continues to rally very well in contrast to uptown. This is predominantly due to the number of condos available that allow for income-producing investments and pied-à- terre products suitable for young professionals sans families.

Co-ops are still struggling to hold footing, with only four co-ops versus 21 condos trading over $4M in September. This phenomenon stems primarily because co-ops tend to have a negative connotation with less ownership control, less privacy, and more stringent financial disclosure requirements, which can be intimidating and off-putting for anyone struggling to recover from job loss, student debt, and business bankruptcy. Even if these are solvent ways to remediate toxic situations, they can be deemed blemishes.

The good news for buyers is that now is likely one of the most incredible times to get value for a large, serious property. It is also a very advantageous time to upgrade and take possession of a bigger unit. For example, buyers pushing for a one bedroom might be able to nab a two-bedroom place for the same price.

For sellers, given the lack of inventory, newer inventory that is in excellent condition (or priced smartly) and positioned cleverly can garner a lot of traction from an otherwise lackluster market in a short window of time. We are seeing value products that are well-finished, with good components, fetch more than one offer and go to a best-and-final offer, resulting in a higher trade price than some lesser comparable units.

Meanwhile, all eyes will remain on the election, although, as mentioned in a previous newsletter, some people will be wary of change regardless of which party wins.

As fall turns into winter, many pending questions will finally be answered — Who is the new president? What will interest rates be? — and while that won’t be a cure-all for all doubt, it may appease some fears of the unknown as we head into the new year.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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