Issue 102 – Fall Real Estate Market Forecast: Bright Prospects Ahead Amid Anticipated Rate Drops

It’s that lovely time again: The leaves are falling; interest rates are falling… Autumn is in the air.

As we head into pumpkin spice and sweater weather, it’s time to look ahead and see how the rest of the year might play out in terms of real estate.

Along with the season’s first chill began to fall upon us, we saw some positive impact on mortgage rates in mid-September — a nice sharp decline in recent months, reflecting growing odds on a lower Fed fund rate soon.

Also at that time, the buzz had been that the fall market would to be predicated on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and whether it would have any additional positive impact on mortgage rates. The Fed rate doesn’t necessarily guarantee lower mortgage rates, however; in fact, the information released on September 18th could have caused tremendous upheaval.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.50% rather than the anticipated 0.25% — but the bond market lost ground, at least initially. There are two potential reasons for this: the dot plot, a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Hayden “Jay” Powell’s press conference. The dot plot left bonds in slightly better shape, but not so Powell’s proposal, which failed to show visible concern about the labor market and stayed clear of declaring victory on inflation.

Combine all that with a bond market that had been in a relatively aggressive position heading into “Fed Day,” and the moderately weaker closing levels are about as boring and logical a result as anyone could imagine.

Time will tell how the Fed’s punting goes for buyers who will continue to go against the grain given the opportunity rush — an approach that may still be well worth taking.

Regardless, downtown continues to rally very well in contrast to uptown. This is predominantly due to the number of condos available that allow for income-producing investments and pied-à- terre products suitable for young professionals sans families.

Co-ops are still struggling to hold footing, with only four co-ops versus 21 condos trading over $4M in September. This phenomenon stems primarily because co-ops tend to have a negative connotation with less ownership control, less privacy, and more stringent financial disclosure requirements, which can be intimidating and off-putting for anyone struggling to recover from job loss, student debt, and business bankruptcy. Even if these are solvent ways to remediate toxic situations, they can be deemed blemishes.

The good news for buyers is that now is likely one of the most incredible times to get value for a large, serious property. It is also a very advantageous time to upgrade and take possession of a bigger unit. For example, buyers pushing for a one bedroom might be able to nab a two-bedroom place for the same price.

For sellers, given the lack of inventory, newer inventory that is in excellent condition (or priced smartly) and positioned cleverly can garner a lot of traction from an otherwise lackluster market in a short window of time. We are seeing value products that are well-finished, with good components, fetch more than one offer and go to a best-and-final offer, resulting in a higher trade price than some lesser comparable units.

Meanwhile, all eyes will remain on the election, although, as mentioned in a previous newsletter, some people will be wary of change regardless of which party wins.

As fall turns into winter, many pending questions will finally be answered — Who is the new president? What will interest rates be? — and while that won’t be a cure-all for all doubt, it may appease some fears of the unknown as we head into the new year.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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