Issue 106 – Lucrative Markets Command Respect

Finally, we see news predicting that Wall Street bonuses are actually up!

In December, reports began to circulate that bonuses were expected to rise, fueled by Citi and Goldman Sachs’ earnings reports. The press suggested that bonuses could be as much as 35% higher than in 2024, although 2024 set a relatively low bar in general. Even Forbes joined the conversation, highlighting that this marks the first bonus increase since the exceptional profitability of 2021, according to a recent report by compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates.

Given that 2024 was an election year, it’s not uncommon for real estate to remain in a “holding pattern” until the election is concluded, and the results are solidified. What does this mean for real estate, specifically?

Many potential buyers held off on making major property purchases or investments, waiting to see the election outcome. This uncertainty contributed to the slower performance of the 2024 property market. However, what was fascinating was the post-election surge: As soon as the winning candidate was announced, we saw a massive uptick in the equity markets, stock market, and real estate market.

In recent months, financial institutions have experienced a resurgence in merger and acquisition activity, particularly following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last year. This decision propelled stock markets to unprecedented highs. Wall Street experienced a significant upswing in the first half of 2024, with pre-tax profits soaring to $23.2 billion—a 79.3% increase compared to the same period the prior year.

When markets perform well, it’s like music to a broker’s ears, as a robust market rebound can revive New York across all asset classes. Real estate, in particular, draws attention as a secure, long-term investment that offers both shelter and equity-building potential. For many, renting feels wasteful and frustrating, given that homeownership is a more reliable way to build wealth over time. If interest rates are favorable, homeownership becomes a no-brainer.

The positive bonus season news naturally spills over into opportunistic purchasing, diversification, and additional income streams through investment properties. This becomes particularly lucrative after a prolonged downturn in the sales market, where momentum has been sluggish or halted altogether.

These conditions often create the best markets for seizing opportunities. Many buyers and sellers mistakenly believe the best time to buy is when everyone else is doing so, but purchasing at the market’s peak often prevents them from realizing significant equity gains. Buyers who purchase at market highs frequently discover their properties lose value, leaving them selling at a loss—especially when offloading larger, high-value properties into which they’ve invested significant capital.

In contrast, a softened sales market combined with strong bonus performance creates a dynamic, lucrative environment for both buyers and sellers. While some sellers might hesitate to bring a property to market in a softer market, fearing they’ll need to lower prices, in a market with limited inventory, well-priced, high-quality properties can attract multiple buyers, driving up value and leading to above-asking-price sales.

Not every market is favorable for buyers, namely when competition drives prices to unsustainable levels. However, the current market offers a tremendous opportunity.

One notable sweet spot is the $4 million to $5 million luxury sector, which experienced a dramatic 53% reduction in contracts from 2023 to 2024. This drop was likely due to unfavorable interest rates, which made deals in this segment less viable. Even in the luxury market, it’s evident that buyers today rely heavily on borrowed leverage.

This reality raises larger questions: Are we living beyond our means? Does this spending align with a better quality of life? Is there a plan to repay these debts when conditions improve?

Ultimately, value comes from creating assets that can generate profit after a period of use—something desirable enough to command a premium from future buyers. Bonuses and vesting schedules provide a significant opportunity to exploit such market conditions.

Historically, those who buy when others are hesitant often make the smartest, most significant decisions, capitalizing on market cycles that yield strong returns in the aftermath of downturns.

All in all, this is an exciting time to seize opportunities and generate long-term growth in the property market, especially after the stagnation of the last two years. I am optimistic and look forward to seeing growth across all price points and segments, from first-time buyers to those upgrading to larger homes or entering prime neighborhoods they’ve long aspired to join.

As we move into spring, one word will define the market: movement. Onward and upward!

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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