Issue 106 – Lucrative Markets Command Respect

Finally, we see news predicting that Wall Street bonuses are actually up!

In December, reports began to circulate that bonuses were expected to rise, fueled by Citi and Goldman Sachs’ earnings reports. The press suggested that bonuses could be as much as 35% higher than in 2024, although 2024 set a relatively low bar in general. Even Forbes joined the conversation, highlighting that this marks the first bonus increase since the exceptional profitability of 2021, according to a recent report by compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates.

Given that 2024 was an election year, it’s not uncommon for real estate to remain in a “holding pattern” until the election is concluded, and the results are solidified. What does this mean for real estate, specifically?

Many potential buyers held off on making major property purchases or investments, waiting to see the election outcome. This uncertainty contributed to the slower performance of the 2024 property market. However, what was fascinating was the post-election surge: As soon as the winning candidate was announced, we saw a massive uptick in the equity markets, stock market, and real estate market.

In recent months, financial institutions have experienced a resurgence in merger and acquisition activity, particularly following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last year. This decision propelled stock markets to unprecedented highs. Wall Street experienced a significant upswing in the first half of 2024, with pre-tax profits soaring to $23.2 billion—a 79.3% increase compared to the same period the prior year.

When markets perform well, it’s like music to a broker’s ears, as a robust market rebound can revive New York across all asset classes. Real estate, in particular, draws attention as a secure, long-term investment that offers both shelter and equity-building potential. For many, renting feels wasteful and frustrating, given that homeownership is a more reliable way to build wealth over time. If interest rates are favorable, homeownership becomes a no-brainer.

The positive bonus season news naturally spills over into opportunistic purchasing, diversification, and additional income streams through investment properties. This becomes particularly lucrative after a prolonged downturn in the sales market, where momentum has been sluggish or halted altogether.

These conditions often create the best markets for seizing opportunities. Many buyers and sellers mistakenly believe the best time to buy is when everyone else is doing so, but purchasing at the market’s peak often prevents them from realizing significant equity gains. Buyers who purchase at market highs frequently discover their properties lose value, leaving them selling at a loss—especially when offloading larger, high-value properties into which they’ve invested significant capital.

In contrast, a softened sales market combined with strong bonus performance creates a dynamic, lucrative environment for both buyers and sellers. While some sellers might hesitate to bring a property to market in a softer market, fearing they’ll need to lower prices, in a market with limited inventory, well-priced, high-quality properties can attract multiple buyers, driving up value and leading to above-asking-price sales.

Not every market is favorable for buyers, namely when competition drives prices to unsustainable levels. However, the current market offers a tremendous opportunity.

One notable sweet spot is the $4 million to $5 million luxury sector, which experienced a dramatic 53% reduction in contracts from 2023 to 2024. This drop was likely due to unfavorable interest rates, which made deals in this segment less viable. Even in the luxury market, it’s evident that buyers today rely heavily on borrowed leverage.

This reality raises larger questions: Are we living beyond our means? Does this spending align with a better quality of life? Is there a plan to repay these debts when conditions improve?

Ultimately, value comes from creating assets that can generate profit after a period of use—something desirable enough to command a premium from future buyers. Bonuses and vesting schedules provide a significant opportunity to exploit such market conditions.

Historically, those who buy when others are hesitant often make the smartest, most significant decisions, capitalizing on market cycles that yield strong returns in the aftermath of downturns.

All in all, this is an exciting time to seize opportunities and generate long-term growth in the property market, especially after the stagnation of the last two years. I am optimistic and look forward to seeing growth across all price points and segments, from first-time buyers to those upgrading to larger homes or entering prime neighborhoods they’ve long aspired to join.

As we move into spring, one word will define the market: movement. Onward and upward!

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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