Issue 106 – Lucrative Markets Command Respect

Finally, we see news predicting that Wall Street bonuses are actually up!

In December, reports began to circulate that bonuses were expected to rise, fueled by Citi and Goldman Sachs’ earnings reports. The press suggested that bonuses could be as much as 35% higher than in 2024, although 2024 set a relatively low bar in general. Even Forbes joined the conversation, highlighting that this marks the first bonus increase since the exceptional profitability of 2021, according to a recent report by compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates.

Given that 2024 was an election year, it’s not uncommon for real estate to remain in a “holding pattern” until the election is concluded, and the results are solidified. What does this mean for real estate, specifically?

Many potential buyers held off on making major property purchases or investments, waiting to see the election outcome. This uncertainty contributed to the slower performance of the 2024 property market. However, what was fascinating was the post-election surge: As soon as the winning candidate was announced, we saw a massive uptick in the equity markets, stock market, and real estate market.

In recent months, financial institutions have experienced a resurgence in merger and acquisition activity, particularly following the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points last year. This decision propelled stock markets to unprecedented highs. Wall Street experienced a significant upswing in the first half of 2024, with pre-tax profits soaring to $23.2 billion—a 79.3% increase compared to the same period the prior year.

When markets perform well, it’s like music to a broker’s ears, as a robust market rebound can revive New York across all asset classes. Real estate, in particular, draws attention as a secure, long-term investment that offers both shelter and equity-building potential. For many, renting feels wasteful and frustrating, given that homeownership is a more reliable way to build wealth over time. If interest rates are favorable, homeownership becomes a no-brainer.

The positive bonus season news naturally spills over into opportunistic purchasing, diversification, and additional income streams through investment properties. This becomes particularly lucrative after a prolonged downturn in the sales market, where momentum has been sluggish or halted altogether.

These conditions often create the best markets for seizing opportunities. Many buyers and sellers mistakenly believe the best time to buy is when everyone else is doing so, but purchasing at the market’s peak often prevents them from realizing significant equity gains. Buyers who purchase at market highs frequently discover their properties lose value, leaving them selling at a loss—especially when offloading larger, high-value properties into which they’ve invested significant capital.

In contrast, a softened sales market combined with strong bonus performance creates a dynamic, lucrative environment for both buyers and sellers. While some sellers might hesitate to bring a property to market in a softer market, fearing they’ll need to lower prices, in a market with limited inventory, well-priced, high-quality properties can attract multiple buyers, driving up value and leading to above-asking-price sales.

Not every market is favorable for buyers, namely when competition drives prices to unsustainable levels. However, the current market offers a tremendous opportunity.

One notable sweet spot is the $4 million to $5 million luxury sector, which experienced a dramatic 53% reduction in contracts from 2023 to 2024. This drop was likely due to unfavorable interest rates, which made deals in this segment less viable. Even in the luxury market, it’s evident that buyers today rely heavily on borrowed leverage.

This reality raises larger questions: Are we living beyond our means? Does this spending align with a better quality of life? Is there a plan to repay these debts when conditions improve?

Ultimately, value comes from creating assets that can generate profit after a period of use—something desirable enough to command a premium from future buyers. Bonuses and vesting schedules provide a significant opportunity to exploit such market conditions.

Historically, those who buy when others are hesitant often make the smartest, most significant decisions, capitalizing on market cycles that yield strong returns in the aftermath of downturns.

All in all, this is an exciting time to seize opportunities and generate long-term growth in the property market, especially after the stagnation of the last two years. I am optimistic and look forward to seeing growth across all price points and segments, from first-time buyers to those upgrading to larger homes or entering prime neighborhoods they’ve long aspired to join.

As we move into spring, one word will define the market: movement. Onward and upward!

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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