Issue 110 – Summer Real Estate Outlook: Partly Sunny with Brighter Skies Ahead 

While the real estate market traditionally slows down from Memorial Day to Labor Day, well-priced and carefully curated and marketed properties will still rise to the top — no matter the season. Summer will be a time of clarification, allowing us to head into a very active fall.

Although it is still late spring, home sales remain steady. Buyers continue to be active right now, but we will soon transition past the peak of the spring frenzy as we head into summer. Nothing about this is unusual.

According to the Olshun Luxury Market Report, released in mid-May, the market has been productive. Thirty-one contracts, each for more than $4 million, were signed in Manhattan. Condos outsold co-ops at a ratio of 15 to 12, and four townhouses were in the mix. That said, for the first time since the summer of 2021, the top two sales were co-ops. This is all great news!

While mortgage rates have mostly been flat, the market has experienced steady movement. According to Urban Digs, Manhattan’s active inventory was 7,260 listings in mid-May. New listings were down 24 percent week-over-week, indicating we may have reached a sort of market-movement solstice, which is par for the course each year.

I think the summer will be a time when people try to ascertain how all factors will play out — not just in real estate, but in the world. Overall, I’d say that while the market will certainly not crash, it will merely seek to maintain stability.  On the bright side, when the market direction is unclear, it often creates an opportunity that can be just as lucrative as when we have a firmer grasp of where the market is heading and what is available.

For example, if U.S. currency weakens, New York City real estate becomes more cost-effective for foreign investors regardless of the season, sparking even more global interest. Traditionally, even in times of severe strife, such as a recession or a significant downturn or catastrophe, NYC real estate manages to recover incredibly quickly and end up soaring.

Well-priced properties in highly sought-after neighborhoods will always attract buyers, while those in fringe areas, particularly in the summer slowdown, will suffer. The properties that rise to the top generally boast good bones, thoughtful renovations, and a top-tier marketing plan.  Intentional buyers are ready to scoop up these refined listings no matter the season, and it’s a big win if they get to do so when more casual buyers are busy having fun in the sun.

More good news for sellers: A recent study by The Happy City Index, created by the Institute for Quality of Life to measure and rank cities based on various factors related to well-being and happiness (including public services, education, environment, and inclusive policies), ranked New York City as the happiest place to live in the country. NYC was also ranked 17th worldwide, putting it among the happiest cities globally, alongside Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Zurich.

As Bankrate aptly summarized, “The continued combination of high mortgage rates, steep home prices and insufficient inventory levels points to 2025 being another tough year for buyers and sellers,” but ultimately leads to more growth in 2025 than 2024. With the right strategies and insights, both buyers and sellers can navigate this unique landscape successfully. The future holds promise, and those who engage thoughtfully with NYC’s market — which is notoriously resilient — may find their efforts rewarded in ways that are fruitful and fulfilling.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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