Issue 110 – Summer Real Estate Outlook: Partly Sunny with Brighter Skies Ahead 

While the real estate market traditionally slows down from Memorial Day to Labor Day, well-priced and carefully curated and marketed properties will still rise to the top — no matter the season. Summer will be a time of clarification, allowing us to head into a very active fall.

Although it is still late spring, home sales remain steady. Buyers continue to be active right now, but we will soon transition past the peak of the spring frenzy as we head into summer. Nothing about this is unusual.

According to the Olshun Luxury Market Report, released in mid-May, the market has been productive. Thirty-one contracts, each for more than $4 million, were signed in Manhattan. Condos outsold co-ops at a ratio of 15 to 12, and four townhouses were in the mix. That said, for the first time since the summer of 2021, the top two sales were co-ops. This is all great news!

While mortgage rates have mostly been flat, the market has experienced steady movement. According to Urban Digs, Manhattan’s active inventory was 7,260 listings in mid-May. New listings were down 24 percent week-over-week, indicating we may have reached a sort of market-movement solstice, which is par for the course each year.

I think the summer will be a time when people try to ascertain how all factors will play out — not just in real estate, but in the world. Overall, I’d say that while the market will certainly not crash, it will merely seek to maintain stability.  On the bright side, when the market direction is unclear, it often creates an opportunity that can be just as lucrative as when we have a firmer grasp of where the market is heading and what is available.

For example, if U.S. currency weakens, New York City real estate becomes more cost-effective for foreign investors regardless of the season, sparking even more global interest. Traditionally, even in times of severe strife, such as a recession or a significant downturn or catastrophe, NYC real estate manages to recover incredibly quickly and end up soaring.

Well-priced properties in highly sought-after neighborhoods will always attract buyers, while those in fringe areas, particularly in the summer slowdown, will suffer. The properties that rise to the top generally boast good bones, thoughtful renovations, and a top-tier marketing plan.  Intentional buyers are ready to scoop up these refined listings no matter the season, and it’s a big win if they get to do so when more casual buyers are busy having fun in the sun.

More good news for sellers: A recent study by The Happy City Index, created by the Institute for Quality of Life to measure and rank cities based on various factors related to well-being and happiness (including public services, education, environment, and inclusive policies), ranked New York City as the happiest place to live in the country. NYC was also ranked 17th worldwide, putting it among the happiest cities globally, alongside Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Zurich.

As Bankrate aptly summarized, “The continued combination of high mortgage rates, steep home prices and insufficient inventory levels points to 2025 being another tough year for buyers and sellers,” but ultimately leads to more growth in 2025 than 2024. With the right strategies and insights, both buyers and sellers can navigate this unique landscape successfully. The future holds promise, and those who engage thoughtfully with NYC’s market — which is notoriously resilient — may find their efforts rewarded in ways that are fruitful and fulfilling.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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