Issue 109 – NYC Real Estate: Stability When Stocks Swing

While I do not claim to be an expert on the stock market, it doesn’t take one to notice the flux in that market during the last quarter. With legislation regarding tariffs flip-flopping daily, unemployment and inflation rising, and the threat of a full-blown recession on the horizon, it’s no surprise investors are feeling a bit out of sorts. Many are reticent to sink their money into anything potentially volatile right now, namely an asset that can drop on a dime.

Enter: the NYC real estate market. Tariffs push people to stay local; consequently, many will gravitate towards property purchases in a real estate mecca like NYC. We also see other signs of folks wanting to invest in local (tariff-free) assets. For example, vintage car sales have experienced an uptick. Investments in online companies and digital sales are also beyond the reach of tariffs.  

These opportunities become very interesting arenas in the context of a dysfunctional market.

As such, most risk-averse investors prefer putting their money into the local real estate market, which seems much more stable than the volatile stock market. This trend is compounded by the softening of the market due to sluggish sales, leading to more negotiability, as well as lower interest rates sparking more interest. These factors create an opportunistic asset that only gets better with time.  

I’m not alone in this thinking. Last month, Haven, a national magazine focused on luxury markets, noted the same phenomenon. The article points to many examples, such as “historical precedents—9/11, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic—when temporary setbacks in real estate were followed by sharp rebounds.”

It then shares opinions by top real estate market experts showing that property in NYC tends to follow a steadier trajectory: “Even during winter months, when housing activity typically slows, rents have reached record highs, bolstered by limited supply and strategic lease structuring by landlords. This steady upward pressure on value has created favorable conditions for long-term investors.”

Indeed, real estate is a steady income-producing asset in NYC, where demand continues to outweigh supply. Other experts cited in Haven concur: “In Downtown Manhattan neighborhoods like Soho, Tribeca, and the West Village, low inventory levels are fueling bidding wars, especially for trophy properties. Scarcity is driving urgency.”

One facet of life never changes: Food and shelter are the primary needs. So if rates are coming down and your income isn’t going up, but rents are—buying property can be one of the most effective ways to grow your own money, particularly when the stock market is unstable or difficult to decipher.

The instability in the financial markets often directly impacts real estate purchases — some buyers use portfolio assets for down payments and to show liquidity for co-op boards. Overall, however, buyers are finding real estate a much steadier landscape to navigate right now, especially when guided and accompanied by a seasoned real estate expert to help them navigate the market.

I am personally witnessing people who might have invested heavily in stocks previously run into the safe haven of the NYC real estate market. I see many clients trying to gauge where they want to park their cash. Some are diversifying, some are unable to diversify, and some are absolutely making hay with the softening market to get some of the most amazing properties at compelling numbers.

According to Olshan Luxury Market Report, 45 contracts worth over $4 million were signed recently — 14 more than in the previous week. Twelve were over $10 million, representing the largest contract signing since December 13, 2021, during the run-up.

The recently released Elliman Report for Q1 also painted a rosy picture: In the co-op and condo sales markets, year-over-year sales are up nearly 29 percent. While inventory is still low, it has increased year-over-year by 7.5 percent, giving savvy buyers an opportunity to jump in. In fact, all important factors are on the rise compared with last year. Tellingly, nine out of 10 sales of properties over $3 million were all-cash deals.

On that note, the New York Post reported that the NYC luxury housing market saw its best quarter in six years! This finding was based on market reports compiled by CNBC from top brokerages, including Douglas Elliman, showing that 58 percent of all sales in the quarter were made in cash.

What is behind this upward trend? CNBC states, “increasingly strict back-to-office mandates on Wall Street and beyond are also bringing high earners back into the Manhattan fold.” CNBC’s report also credited the ongoing “great wealth transfer” of trillions of dollars from the baby boomer generation to their fortunate offspring.

The bottom line is that no one wants to ride a rollercoaster when it comes to their financial stability. Hunkering down now with a solid property purchase, particularly one that can offer a steady increase in economic benefits over time, will outweigh the potentially substantial loss on stocks if the volatile trajectory continues.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

Recent Reports

SUBSCRIBE TO THE KATZEN REPORT

UP-TO-THE-MINUTE PULSE ON REAL ESTATE