Issue 109 – NYC Real Estate: Stability When Stocks Swing

While I do not claim to be an expert on the stock market, it doesn’t take one to notice the flux in that market during the last quarter. With legislation regarding tariffs flip-flopping daily, unemployment and inflation rising, and the threat of a full-blown recession on the horizon, it’s no surprise investors are feeling a bit out of sorts. Many are reticent to sink their money into anything potentially volatile right now, namely an asset that can drop on a dime.

Enter: the NYC real estate market. Tariffs push people to stay local; consequently, many will gravitate towards property purchases in a real estate mecca like NYC. We also see other signs of folks wanting to invest in local (tariff-free) assets. For example, vintage car sales have experienced an uptick. Investments in online companies and digital sales are also beyond the reach of tariffs.  

These opportunities become very interesting arenas in the context of a dysfunctional market.

As such, most risk-averse investors prefer putting their money into the local real estate market, which seems much more stable than the volatile stock market. This trend is compounded by the softening of the market due to sluggish sales, leading to more negotiability, as well as lower interest rates sparking more interest. These factors create an opportunistic asset that only gets better with time.  

I’m not alone in this thinking. Last month, Haven, a national magazine focused on luxury markets, noted the same phenomenon. The article points to many examples, such as “historical precedents—9/11, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic—when temporary setbacks in real estate were followed by sharp rebounds.”

It then shares opinions by top real estate market experts showing that property in NYC tends to follow a steadier trajectory: “Even during winter months, when housing activity typically slows, rents have reached record highs, bolstered by limited supply and strategic lease structuring by landlords. This steady upward pressure on value has created favorable conditions for long-term investors.”

Indeed, real estate is a steady income-producing asset in NYC, where demand continues to outweigh supply. Other experts cited in Haven concur: “In Downtown Manhattan neighborhoods like Soho, Tribeca, and the West Village, low inventory levels are fueling bidding wars, especially for trophy properties. Scarcity is driving urgency.”

One facet of life never changes: Food and shelter are the primary needs. So if rates are coming down and your income isn’t going up, but rents are—buying property can be one of the most effective ways to grow your own money, particularly when the stock market is unstable or difficult to decipher.

The instability in the financial markets often directly impacts real estate purchases — some buyers use portfolio assets for down payments and to show liquidity for co-op boards. Overall, however, buyers are finding real estate a much steadier landscape to navigate right now, especially when guided and accompanied by a seasoned real estate expert to help them navigate the market.

I am personally witnessing people who might have invested heavily in stocks previously run into the safe haven of the NYC real estate market. I see many clients trying to gauge where they want to park their cash. Some are diversifying, some are unable to diversify, and some are absolutely making hay with the softening market to get some of the most amazing properties at compelling numbers.

According to Olshan Luxury Market Report, 45 contracts worth over $4 million were signed recently — 14 more than in the previous week. Twelve were over $10 million, representing the largest contract signing since December 13, 2021, during the run-up.

The recently released Elliman Report for Q1 also painted a rosy picture: In the co-op and condo sales markets, year-over-year sales are up nearly 29 percent. While inventory is still low, it has increased year-over-year by 7.5 percent, giving savvy buyers an opportunity to jump in. In fact, all important factors are on the rise compared with last year. Tellingly, nine out of 10 sales of properties over $3 million were all-cash deals.

On that note, the New York Post reported that the NYC luxury housing market saw its best quarter in six years! This finding was based on market reports compiled by CNBC from top brokerages, including Douglas Elliman, showing that 58 percent of all sales in the quarter were made in cash.

What is behind this upward trend? CNBC states, “increasingly strict back-to-office mandates on Wall Street and beyond are also bringing high earners back into the Manhattan fold.” CNBC’s report also credited the ongoing “great wealth transfer” of trillions of dollars from the baby boomer generation to their fortunate offspring.

The bottom line is that no one wants to ride a rollercoaster when it comes to their financial stability. Hunkering down now with a solid property purchase, particularly one that can offer a steady increase in economic benefits over time, will outweigh the potentially substantial loss on stocks if the volatile trajectory continues.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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