Issue 109 – NYC Real Estate: Stability When Stocks Swing

While I do not claim to be an expert on the stock market, it doesn’t take one to notice the flux in that market during the last quarter. With legislation regarding tariffs flip-flopping daily, unemployment and inflation rising, and the threat of a full-blown recession on the horizon, it’s no surprise investors are feeling a bit out of sorts. Many are reticent to sink their money into anything potentially volatile right now, namely an asset that can drop on a dime.

Enter: the NYC real estate market. Tariffs push people to stay local; consequently, many will gravitate towards property purchases in a real estate mecca like NYC. We also see other signs of folks wanting to invest in local (tariff-free) assets. For example, vintage car sales have experienced an uptick. Investments in online companies and digital sales are also beyond the reach of tariffs.  

These opportunities become very interesting arenas in the context of a dysfunctional market.

As such, most risk-averse investors prefer putting their money into the local real estate market, which seems much more stable than the volatile stock market. This trend is compounded by the softening of the market due to sluggish sales, leading to more negotiability, as well as lower interest rates sparking more interest. These factors create an opportunistic asset that only gets better with time.  

I’m not alone in this thinking. Last month, Haven, a national magazine focused on luxury markets, noted the same phenomenon. The article points to many examples, such as “historical precedents—9/11, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic—when temporary setbacks in real estate were followed by sharp rebounds.”

It then shares opinions by top real estate market experts showing that property in NYC tends to follow a steadier trajectory: “Even during winter months, when housing activity typically slows, rents have reached record highs, bolstered by limited supply and strategic lease structuring by landlords. This steady upward pressure on value has created favorable conditions for long-term investors.”

Indeed, real estate is a steady income-producing asset in NYC, where demand continues to outweigh supply. Other experts cited in Haven concur: “In Downtown Manhattan neighborhoods like Soho, Tribeca, and the West Village, low inventory levels are fueling bidding wars, especially for trophy properties. Scarcity is driving urgency.”

One facet of life never changes: Food and shelter are the primary needs. So if rates are coming down and your income isn’t going up, but rents are—buying property can be one of the most effective ways to grow your own money, particularly when the stock market is unstable or difficult to decipher.

The instability in the financial markets often directly impacts real estate purchases — some buyers use portfolio assets for down payments and to show liquidity for co-op boards. Overall, however, buyers are finding real estate a much steadier landscape to navigate right now, especially when guided and accompanied by a seasoned real estate expert to help them navigate the market.

I am personally witnessing people who might have invested heavily in stocks previously run into the safe haven of the NYC real estate market. I see many clients trying to gauge where they want to park their cash. Some are diversifying, some are unable to diversify, and some are absolutely making hay with the softening market to get some of the most amazing properties at compelling numbers.

According to Olshan Luxury Market Report, 45 contracts worth over $4 million were signed recently — 14 more than in the previous week. Twelve were over $10 million, representing the largest contract signing since December 13, 2021, during the run-up.

The recently released Elliman Report for Q1 also painted a rosy picture: In the co-op and condo sales markets, year-over-year sales are up nearly 29 percent. While inventory is still low, it has increased year-over-year by 7.5 percent, giving savvy buyers an opportunity to jump in. In fact, all important factors are on the rise compared with last year. Tellingly, nine out of 10 sales of properties over $3 million were all-cash deals.

On that note, the New York Post reported that the NYC luxury housing market saw its best quarter in six years! This finding was based on market reports compiled by CNBC from top brokerages, including Douglas Elliman, showing that 58 percent of all sales in the quarter were made in cash.

What is behind this upward trend? CNBC states, “increasingly strict back-to-office mandates on Wall Street and beyond are also bringing high earners back into the Manhattan fold.” CNBC’s report also credited the ongoing “great wealth transfer” of trillions of dollars from the baby boomer generation to their fortunate offspring.

The bottom line is that no one wants to ride a rollercoaster when it comes to their financial stability. Hunkering down now with a solid property purchase, particularly one that can offer a steady increase in economic benefits over time, will outweigh the potentially substantial loss on stocks if the volatile trajectory continues.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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