Issue 112 – NYC Real Estate Recovery in a Post-Covid World

It has been more than half a decade since we first heard of Covid-19. The ensuing pandemic quickly changed everything — including the real estate market. Thankfully, we have collectively shaken off our initial panic and confusion and are now armed with perspective. Oh, how far we have come, especially when it comes to housing. 

According to many top-tier press predictions, big-city real estate — including in New York City —wouldn’t recover until well into 2025. Happily, several recent articles, particularly one by Matthews, a real estate investment firm, state that we are “far ahead of schedule, the city has seen jobs rebound, population recovery, and an increase in demand for quality assets.”

To see this progression, here’s a quick recap: Starting in the spring of 2020, pandemic restrictions instituted in NYC led to many rapid changes — namely, job loss, doing anything and everything we could remotely, and changing the way we ate, slept, worked, and played. They changed how we connected with people and, most of all, reframed our priorities. All these factors played into forcing many people out of large urban centers and into more rural areas.

Without the need to commute, many people longed for living spaces in less populated areas where they could enjoy fresh air and exercise, and more importantly, connect with family. As a mother of two under the age of 11, it was a very formative time for me in terms of human connection and cultivating familial intimacy. Having eye contact and being fully present with family members in close proximity was so valuable.  

Those who stayed in NYC wanted homes set up for comfort and functionality, with larger spaces, in-unit offices, more functional kitchens — Who wasn’t learning how to bake sourdough bread? — and private outdoor access.

As an agent selling in such an unknown time, I initially had no surefire idea how to advise clients. I was receiving calls from owners of truly beautiful homes who were frightened and longing for safety, security, good air quality, a sense of community… They were relocating to places that offered those things: the Hamptons, Westchester, Connecticut, Telluride, and Florida. There was such a mass exodus that we initially saw NYC become somewhat of a ghost town.

We also saw an unprecedented boom in the secondary market, bringing those prices up exponentially. The vacancy rate was so tight, but people were willing to pay exorbitant amounts just to get out of cities and replant themselves next to trees, mountains, lakes, and oceans.

According to a recent article in Fast Company, “From summer 2020 to spring 2022, the number of active homes for sale in most housing markets plummeted as homebuyer demand quickly absorbed almost everything that came up for sale.”

However, NYC is ever resilient. We quickly adapted and made many changes to accommodate renters, buyers, and sellers in a state of flux. The industry pivoted. We became used to “the new normal.”

Enter: digitization. We all quickly became familiar with Zoom, using it when buying and selling apartments. In one particular instance, I sold a one-bedroom apartment on East 22nd Street for $2 million without the buyer ever setting foot in it! She had lived in the building before relocating to Europe and needed to return to Manhattan. The deal was literally finalized by just showing her each room via video — opening and closing all closets and drawers — because she couldn’t be there in person. It was the first time I’d ever seen someone buy something without actually walking through the property.  

Who would have thought that this digitized trend would persist with such intensity into post-pandemic times? According to an article last month by luxury publication Haven, the digital revolution has become the industry standard. It has led to real estate’s rebound.

“The most visible transformation lies in the widespread digitization of real estate transactions and marketing. The Covid pandemic changed business culture in NYC permanently through a necessary integration of digital platforms to conduct commerce and make deals,” Haven notes.

“What once seemed like temporary measures have become the industry’s new foundation, with virtual tours, digital staging, and online closings now representing standard practice rather than innovative alternatives. This digital transformation extends far beyond convenience, fundamentally altering how properties are marketed and experienced,” the article continues.

I believe our desire to reconnect with nature has carried forward into the demand for a sustainable and environmentally supportive lifestyle choice. 

Simultaneously, there’s been a shift in focus to properties with quality-of-life amenities, such as infrared saunas, cryotherapy, pool rooms, and relaxation rooms featuring meditation, yoga, cold plunges, and hammams. They have all become the rage. Alongside this is the more advanced technology of AI, which seamlessly integrates home automation for various functions, from temperature control and audio/video systems to adjusting lights and window shades.  

Old-school key elements such as natural light, open views, indoor air quality, and well-appointed rooms are still in demand, and will always remain so.

All in all, City Journal captured the rebound perfectly: “New York is surviving — if not thriving — defying the worst pandemic-era predictions. Few today would call the city ‘completely dead,’ as James Altucher infamously did in 2020.”

The article explains that the city’s economy appears to have bounced back, something unimaginable in spring 2020: “In December 2019, New York had a record 4.160 million private-sector jobs. By December 2024 (the most recent data available), that number had grown to 4.246 million—a nearly 2.1 percent increase. Considering that one in five jobs had vanished by May 2020, this is no small feat. More economic activity is also visible on the transit system, though work-from-home habits persist: subway ridership hovers by just above three-quarters of pre-Covid levels.”

So, it is no surprise that real estate is also slowly rallying once again. The most prominent comeback is the co-op market, which was decimated in Covid’s wake.  

A mid-2024 Partnership for New York City survey of white-collar firms found that in-office employment had recovered to slightly below three-quarters of pre-Covid levels. While most workers are back in the office, including those in financial institutions and other large corporations, many companies are working on a hybrid schedule that includes in-office/work-from-home arrangements.  

I think Covid — such a wakeup call! — reminded us that nothing is certain. It has given us perspective on what is truly important: family, community, and connections. The work-life balance has become a priority. The pandemic forced many people to look inward, to embrace and reorganize their internal landscape to survive such a confronting and confining time.

This shift is clearly reflected in the current market — which, according to Haven, “reflects a lasting evolution, not a temporary shift.” Digitalization, lifestyle amenities, and the focus on community are now vital elements in New York City real estate, driving up premium prices across all segments of the market.

I concur with Haven’s endnote, which prophesizes: “Looking ahead, the market’s success will likely depend on its ability to continue evolving in response to changing lifestyle preferences and technological capabilities and demand.”

It seems that based on these demands, people have gravitated towards quality-of-life neighborhoods — those that provide a healthy live-work balance. These areas have garnered pricing and property sales well above the anticipated. The new lifestyle choices have already been reflected in myriad ways. For example, theaters have moved up their ‘curtain’ times from 8:05 p.m. to 7:30 p.m., and many restaurant kitchens are closing at 9 p.m. instead of midnight. It appears that a unified consensus about the desire to slow down has influenced a change in operational hours, as well as within living environments.

Here’s to continued hard work, while maintaining a bit more balance and recognizing that if NYC were ever going to fall, it would have been when it experienced a mass exodus. But in true New York City form, not only did it rally, but it also superseded every expectation, as it always does. Have a great summer!

Issue 124 – “The Freeze Heard Across New York”

Even those of us who spend most of our days in the world of sales rather than rentals cannot ignore the conversation dominating New York real estate this summer: the city’s newly approved two-year rent freeze on nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments. The decision, fulfilling one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s signature campaign promises, has ignited passionate debate from tenants, landlords, developers, and economists alike.

As Time Magazine recently reported, “’Freeze the rent’ became the definitive rallying cry of Mamdani’s affordability-focused mayoral campaign for New York City, one of the most expensive cities in the world. Despite skepticism that he could actually pull it off, a board he controls made good on his pledge just six months into his term.”

In a 7-1 vote this June, the Rent Guidelines Board approved a rent freeze on one- and two-year leases on rent-stabilized apartments — which, according to the Time article, “make up about 27% of overall NYC housing stock.”

For tenants living in stabilized housing, the appeal is obvious. In a city where affordability persists as one of the defining challenges of our time, freezing rents offers immediate relief and greater certainty in an increasingly pricey environment.

Yet, as is so often the case in New York real estate, the story is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

The New York Post presented the other side of the story, explaining that building owners are grappling with rising operating costs: insurance premiums, labor expenses, property taxes, and capital improvements have all increased substantially.

Critics argue that while the freeze protects tenants in the short term, rising expenses without corresponding rent increases may make it harder, particularly for smaller landlords, to maintain and improve aging buildings.

Rent freezes are not unprecedented. Previous freezes have provided short-term relief for tenants while renewing debates over maintenance, capital improvements, and investment in aging housing stock.

The broader issue is supply. Economists across the political spectrum generally agree that New York’s housing shortage cannot be solved through rent regulation alone. As Vox reported, demand continues to outpace inventory, making new housing production, zoning reform, and development incentives essential.  

Although the freeze does not directly affect market-rate apartments, landlords with both stabilized and market-rate units may feel pressure to offset constrained revenue by increasing free-market rents where legally permissible. New York State’s 2024 Good Cause Eviction law, however, limits annual rent increases to the lesser of 10% or the local inflation index.

For buyers, particularly investors considering multifamily assets, the freeze introduces additional uncertainty around future income growth. Buildings with significant rent-stabilized components may trade at lower valuations because purchasers will have to underwrite higher operating costs against stagnant revenue.

For sellers, especially owners of mixed-use or rent-stabilized assets, the challenge becomes demonstrating long-term upside. We may see some owners delay sales, while others bring assets to market sooner out of concern that future regulation could become even more restrictive.

From a residential perspective, one unintended consequence may be increased demand for condominiums and co-ops. When rental policy becomes less predictable, many affluent New Yorkers begin to view ownership as a more stable, controllable alternative.

Foreign investors are unlikely to retreat from purchasing trophy condominiums or prime co-ops, which operate outside the stabilized system. In fact, increased regulation in the rental market could strengthen the appeal of luxury ownership as a store of wealth.

The greater consequence will be on institutional and international investors exploring multifamily acquisitions, where limits on revenue growth coupled with rising operating expenses may prompt some capital to pause, reprice risk, or seek opportunities elsewhere.

A major concern today is that the economics are more challenging than they were a decade ago. The Rent Guidelines Board’s own data shows that operating expenses continue to rise, with insurance costs increasing by more than 10% and overall operating costs rising by more than 5%. The effects will likely be felt most acutely in neighborhoods with large concentrations of rent-stabilized housing, while luxury condominium markets such as Tribeca, SoHo, and much of the West Village, where condominium and market-rate inventory dominate, will experience relatively little direct change.

New York remains one of the most desirable real estate markets in the world. The larger question is whether future housing policy can strike the right balance between protecting tenants and preserving the incentives necessary to maintain and improve the city’s housing stock. Recent reporting suggests that landlords and tenants alike are increasingly worried about the long-term sustainability of that balance.  

Perhaps most interesting is what this moment reveals about New York itself. Housing has become far more than an economic issue—it has become a cultural and political one. The debate over rent stabilization reflects larger questions about who gets to stay in the city, who can afford to enter it, and what balance should exist between protecting existing residents and encouraging future investment.

As someone whose business focuses primarily on the sales market, I often remind clients that New York real estate rarely moves in straight lines. Policy shifts ripple through every corner of the market, shaping rental demand, buyer behavior, and investment strategy alike.

Yet what doesn’t change is New York’s capacity to reinvent itself. The conversation around housing will evolve, administrations will change, and policies will come and go. But the city’s enduring challenge — and opportunity — will always be finding ways to be both livable and aspirational.

Recent Reports

SUBSCRIBE TO THE KATZEN REPORT

UP-TO-THE-MINUTE PULSE ON REAL ESTATE