Issue 119 – When Bonuses Meet Policy

It’s been all over the news: Wall Street bonuses will be the biggest in four years!

The Office of the New York City Comptroller has previously forecast that bonuses in the financial sector will rise by 6% this year, based on significant 2025 growth on Wall Street.

They weren’t wrong: According to Reuters, “Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise for the second year for traders and investment bankers on surging deal volume and market volatility, according to financial compensation consultancy Johnson Associates.”

Reuters continues, “The bonus pool is expected to be the highest since 2021, when deals and profits surged to a record. Equity sales and trading professionals are expected to get the biggest bonus bumps of 15% to 25%, while investment bankers in M&A advisory and equity underwriting will likely get increases of 10% to 15%.”

We all know that fat bonuses last year led to a very robust real estate market, with REALTOR.com reporting that the Hamptons’ high-end housing market had a banner year thanks to such payouts.

Sales of Hamptons’ homes for $5 million or more reached an all-time high in late 2025, according to a new report by appraiser Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman.

“A third consecutive year of double-digit stock market returns, and record Wall Street bonuses helped fuel demand for luxury properties,” Philip V. O’Connell, managing director of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens’ Hamptons office, told Mansion Global.

The New York Post joins in on the joyful serenade, publishing an article denoting that Manhattan’s luxury market is roaring back towards 2016’s healthy peak, due to bonuses continuing to be on the upswing.

By the end of last year, the median price for a luxury home — defined as the top 10% of the market — hit $6.39 million, according to a new report from Douglas Elliman.

The New York Post further expounds, “The luxury sector also proved more resilient coming out of the downturn.”

During the early 2020 downturn, the pandemic, and remote-work uncertainty, luxury homes rebounded faster than the middle market, as wealthy investors rely less on financing and are less prone to turbulence from interest-rate volatility.

Luxury condos, in particular, outperformed in the last few years, “a shift that reflects long-term stabilization rather than sudden popularity,” according to the New York Post. 

While these blockbuster payouts are certainly good for those interested in investing in real estate, the political climate in NYC may not be. A monkey wrench may be thrown into the mix with the new mayor’s proposed tax policy.  

Though nothing is set in stone, in February, Mayor Mamdani declared there were only two ways to close the budget gap: Either tax the wealthiest New Yorkers two percentage points on those making $1 million or more per year or raise New York City property taxes on average 9.5% as a “last resort,” according to a recent New York Times article. 

“If we cannot follow this first path,” Mamdani said, “we will be forced onto a much more damaging path of last resort — one where we have to use the only tools at the city’s disposal: raising property taxes and raiding our reserves.”

“The second path is painful,” he added. “We will continue to work with Albany to avoid it.”

From a homeowner’s perspective, both proposals materially change the economics of owning in New York City — even at the $1 million price point, which is very much middle-of-the-road for the city.

The mayor is proposing raising the citywide rate across the four property tax classes — ranging from Class 1, small homes, to Class 4, including offices and hotels — to 13.45%, up from the current 12.28%.

This proposed expansion of the Mansion Tax/Transfer Tax effectively raises the cost of transacting. While it’s framed as a “luxury” measure, in practice, it hits ordinary primary residences because $1 million–$1.5 million is no longer a luxury threshold in Manhattan or Brooklyn. It discourages mobility — people stay put longer, delay selling, or think twice about upgrading — which ultimately freezes inventory and hurts the broader market.

The ongoing property- or wealth-based tax proposal is more concerning for homeowners because it’s not a one-time transaction — it’s recurring. Mortgage payments, property taxes, maintenance, and insurance are already fixed, non-negotiable costs. Adding another annual tax tied to asset value, rather than income or liquidity, puts pressure on cash flow. For many homeowners, the home isn’t a speculative asset; it’s where their savings are parked. So being taxed repeatedly on unrealized value changes affordability in a very real way.

Together, the mayor’s proposals reach far beyond ultra-high-net-worth owners. They land squarely on working professionals and long-term residents who bought responsibly, carry mortgages, and plan within fixed budgets. The practical outcome is reduced mobility, increased carrying costs, and a system that quietly discourages ownership rather than sustaining it.

The New York Times notes that such measures would likely raise housing costs, put upward pressure on rents, and increase operating expenses for landlords — affecting more than three million homes and over 100,000 commercial buildings citywide.

It remains too early to predict which proposal ultimately advances, but markets respond to incentives. Traditionally, higher bonuses translate into movement; uncertainty around policy changes alters that equation. How this balance is struck will shape not just transaction volume but also who the city ultimately remains accessible to.

Issue 126 – Who Owns the Listing?

New York real estate is quietly becoming a battle for access, and most consumers don’t even realize the rules are changing.

The most important battle may no longer be who gets the listing — it may be who gets to see it. For most of my career, a listing broker’s job has been straightforward: create demand, tell the property’s story, expose it to the right buyers, negotiate expertly, and ultimately get the best possible outcome for the seller. Now a fundamental element of that role is shifting — access itself.

That does not mean private listings are inherently problematic, or even new. I’ve sold properties quietly myself. Sometimes discretion is necessary—for privacy reasons, security concerns, divorce proceedings, an occupied home, or to test a pricing strategy.

But what was once the exception is becoming more the norm.

As of August 12, Marketproof identified 440 Manhattan properties being offered as ‘Participant Only’ listings, representing approximately $1.94 billion in asking volume. Of this total, 47 new Participant Only listings were added in June, 144 in July, and 153 in just the first 12 days of August.

This isn’t just a trophy-market phenomenon. Marketproof found that nearly 30% of those listings were asking under $1 million. And The Real Deal’s recent analysis points in the same direction, reporting a 30% increase in off-market residential sales volume across Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens in 2025.

Put those numbers together, and it becomes difficult to dismiss private real estate as merely the world of whisper listings and ultra-high-net-worth sellers. Private marketing is becoming mainstream, which deserves a closer look. We need to ascertain who benefits.

So, who owns the listing? Legally, the answer is obvious — the seller owns the property. In practice, the picture is more nuanced. Listings have become valuable currency: they attract buyers, who generate data and relationships. And those relationships lead to transactions that create market share and leverage.

Perhaps we should be asking a different question: When did exclusivity stop meaning the right to represent a property and start meaning the right to restrict who sees it?

The seller wants the best possible combination of price, privacy, certainty, and timing. The broker wants to represent the seller successfully, protect the relationship, and complete the transaction. The brokerage or platform has another economic interest: inventory. Listings attract consumers, engagement, data, and future business. None of these interests is inherently improper. But when they diverge, we need to be very clear about whose interest comes first.

For me, the seller has to be the North Star. That is where the debate becomes complicated.

StreetEasy has argued that the growth of private listings creates artificial scarcity and gatekeeping. Supporters of private marketing argue that sellers should have the right to decide how — and how publicly — their homes are marketed.

I understand both arguments. But I keep coming back to one question: Does restricting exposure actually create a better outcome for the seller? If it does, show me.

The early data is fascinating, partly because it doesn’t give us a definitive answer. Marketproof found that 78% of the Participant Only listings it analyzed had previously been publicly marketed. Of those Participant Only listings that came off the market without selling, roughly one-third subsequently returned to the public market. Additionally, those relistings came back at a median asking price 6.4% below their Participant Only asking price, according to Marketproof. While interesting, it doesn’t prove that private marketing is ineffective.

There aren’t enough matched transactions yet to determine whether comparable privately marketed properties ultimately sell for more or less than publicly marketed ones. That’s precisely why I think the industry should be careful about declaring victory on either side.

Real estate value is established through imperfect but important information: comparable transactions, current competition, buyer behavior, and ultimately what someone is willing to pay. Exposure is part of that price-discovery mechanism, but it doesn’t mean maximum exposure always produces maximum price.

Scarcity can create urgency. A sophisticated broker may know exactly which handful of buyers are right for a particular property. However, we need to be careful not to confuse controlled exposure with manufactured scarcity.

Another reason this conversation matters now: Consolidation is changing the brokerage business. Large firms can offer extraordinary advantages — technology, referral networks, data, marketing resources, and access to enormous numbers of agents and consumers. Scale itself isn’t the problem, But when scale is combined with proprietary inventory, the competitive equation changes.

For years, technology moved residential real estate toward greater transparency. Consumers gained access to listings, price histories, comparable sales, building information, and market data that once largely resided with brokers. That disrupted our industry, but I think it made good brokers more valuable — not less. A great broker shouldn’t be afraid of this transparency.

Our value is actually understanding the information. It’s knowing why one apartment deserves $2,000 per square foot while another in the same building doesn’t. It’s knowing when to walk away from a bidding war, how to position an unusual property, how to navigate a board, how to structure a complicated deal —  and how to tell a seller something they may not want to hear.

None of this means every property should automatically be marketed publicly. But as a broker, my responsibility is making sure the seller understands the nuance.

Whenever an industry undergoes structural change, I find it useful to ask one simple question: Who benefits? And I always circle back to the ultimate one: What will produce the best outcome for my client?

Before New York embraces a fundamentally different marketplace, we should demand enough transparency to know, because the future of residential brokerage shouldn’t be decided solely by which company has the largest network or which website has the largest audience.

None of us should confuse access to the listing with ownership of the client’s interests.

So, if private marketing creates greater value for sellers, let’s prove it. If an open marketplace creates greater value, let’s prove that too. If the answer depends upon the particular seller and property, let’s have the sophistication to say so.

Because ultimately, the most important question isn’t whether a listing is public or private; it’s whether restricting access creates value for the seller — or just value for the company controlling the access. Those are not the same thing.

And right now, New York real estate needs to understand the difference.

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