Issue 121 – Decisiveness Is Back—But It’s Selective

As spring comes into bloom, the real estate market is also blossoming. However, while capital is moving again, it isn’t doing so everywhere. Growth in real estate recently has been selective. The market didn’t stall—it sharpened.

What we’re seeing right now isn’t a broad recovery; it’s a precision market.

Brickunderground recently reported on what transpired in the last quarter, detailing that Manhattan co-op and condo deals above $3 million doubled in the first quarter and the average bonus on Wall Street was up 5 percent in 2025 to $246,900.

Buyers are back post–tax season with clarity, liquidity, and intent—but only for assets that feel inevitable. The days of “good enough” clearing simply because money was cheap are behind us. Today’s buyer is underwriting both lifestyle and downside protection, and if a property doesn’t check both boxes, it’s being left behind.

There is a growing disconnect between what’s available and what’s actually buyable. On paper, inventory has risen. In practice, usable inventory remains tight. The increase is largely driven by product that is either overexposed, aspirationally priced, or simply lacking the level of finish and positioning that today’s market demands. The result is a widening gap between ask and execution—and an average time on market that continues to stretch, often by as much as 60–80 days beyond what we were accustomed to just a few years ago.

At the same time, the top of the market is behaving very differently. Trophy and turnkey properties—particularly those that offer something scarce, whether that’s scale, light, views, or true design integrity—are absorbing demand with far more consistency. In many cases, these deals are happening quietly, often off-market, where sellers and buyers are able to transact without the noise of broader market hesitation. This is where conviction and decisiveness live right now.

According to the Robb Report about the Q1 data, Manhattan’s $10 Million condos are fling off the market. “Trophy-home deals jumped nearly 50 percent in Q1, according to new reports,” Robb Report denotes.  

Brickunderground explains, “a record Wall Street bonus pool helped spur a surge in high-end sales.”

Robb Report continues, “A stretch of record-breaking winter storms collided with geopolitical uncertainty and stock market swings, softening overall activity. At the very top of the market, however, it was a different story entirely. Call it a tale of two markets. While much of Manhattan hesitated, the ultra-wealthy kept moving—and in some cases, moving quickly when the right opportunity appeared.”

Luxury real estate is no longer one market—it’s a collection of micro-markets, each behaving on its own timeline. New development in certain corridors continues to face valuation pressure due to supply concentration, while established co-ops and well-positioned resales are holding firmer ground. Unique assets such as full-floor lofts, architecturally significant homes, or anything that cannot be easily replicated, are commanding disproportionate attention. Meanwhile, the “in-between” product is where friction remains most visible.

The most sophisticated buyers understand this dynamic and are leaning into it. They are not waiting for perfect clarity on rates or macro signals. They are identifying where hesitation still exists and using it to their advantage. By the time the market feels broadly “safe” again, the opportunity set will have already shifted.

The numbers agree, “The median Manhattan sales price climbed to $1.285 million, up eight percent year over year,” adds the recent market report from Robb Report.

For sellers, the takeaway is equally clear. Pricing is no longer a strategy; it’s a reflection of positioning. The market will reward properties that are aligned, prepared, and differentiated. Everything else will be tested.

Robb Report sums up what they believe is to come and why: “As spring approaches, more inventory is expected to hit the market, which could ease some of the tension between buyers and sellers. But one thing already feels clear. Manhattan’s wealthiest buyers aren’t waiting around. When the right property comes along, they’re still ready to make a move.”

There is no exodus. There is no freeze. There is simply a market that has become more disciplined.

And in a disciplined market, decisiveness is what clears.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

Recent Reports

SUBSCRIBE TO THE KATZEN REPORT

UP-TO-THE-MINUTE PULSE ON REAL ESTATE