Issue 121 – Decisiveness Is Back—But It’s Selective

As spring comes into bloom, the real estate market is also blossoming. However, while capital is moving again, it isn’t doing so everywhere. Growth in real estate recently has been selective. The market didn’t stall—it sharpened.

What we’re seeing right now isn’t a broad recovery; it’s a precision market.

Brickunderground recently reported on what transpired in the last quarter, detailing that Manhattan co-op and condo deals above $3 million doubled in the first quarter and the average bonus on Wall Street was up 5 percent in 2025 to $246,900.

Buyers are back post–tax season with clarity, liquidity, and intent—but only for assets that feel inevitable. The days of “good enough” clearing simply because money was cheap are behind us. Today’s buyer is underwriting both lifestyle and downside protection, and if a property doesn’t check both boxes, it’s being left behind.

There is a growing disconnect between what’s available and what’s actually buyable. On paper, inventory has risen. In practice, usable inventory remains tight. The increase is largely driven by product that is either overexposed, aspirationally priced, or simply lacking the level of finish and positioning that today’s market demands. The result is a widening gap between ask and execution—and an average time on market that continues to stretch, often by as much as 60–80 days beyond what we were accustomed to just a few years ago.

At the same time, the top of the market is behaving very differently. Trophy and turnkey properties—particularly those that offer something scarce, whether that’s scale, light, views, or true design integrity—are absorbing demand with far more consistency. In many cases, these deals are happening quietly, often off-market, where sellers and buyers are able to transact without the noise of broader market hesitation. This is where conviction and decisiveness live right now.

According to the Robb Report about the Q1 data, Manhattan’s $10 Million condos are fling off the market. “Trophy-home deals jumped nearly 50 percent in Q1, according to new reports,” Robb Report denotes.  

Brickunderground explains, “a record Wall Street bonus pool helped spur a surge in high-end sales.”

Robb Report continues, “A stretch of record-breaking winter storms collided with geopolitical uncertainty and stock market swings, softening overall activity. At the very top of the market, however, it was a different story entirely. Call it a tale of two markets. While much of Manhattan hesitated, the ultra-wealthy kept moving—and in some cases, moving quickly when the right opportunity appeared.”

Luxury real estate is no longer one market—it’s a collection of micro-markets, each behaving on its own timeline. New development in certain corridors continues to face valuation pressure due to supply concentration, while established co-ops and well-positioned resales are holding firmer ground. Unique assets such as full-floor lofts, architecturally significant homes, or anything that cannot be easily replicated, are commanding disproportionate attention. Meanwhile, the “in-between” product is where friction remains most visible.

The most sophisticated buyers understand this dynamic and are leaning into it. They are not waiting for perfect clarity on rates or macro signals. They are identifying where hesitation still exists and using it to their advantage. By the time the market feels broadly “safe” again, the opportunity set will have already shifted.

The numbers agree, “The median Manhattan sales price climbed to $1.285 million, up eight percent year over year,” adds the recent market report from Robb Report.

For sellers, the takeaway is equally clear. Pricing is no longer a strategy; it’s a reflection of positioning. The market will reward properties that are aligned, prepared, and differentiated. Everything else will be tested.

Robb Report sums up what they believe is to come and why: “As spring approaches, more inventory is expected to hit the market, which could ease some of the tension between buyers and sellers. But one thing already feels clear. Manhattan’s wealthiest buyers aren’t waiting around. When the right property comes along, they’re still ready to make a move.”

There is no exodus. There is no freeze. There is simply a market that has become more disciplined.

And in a disciplined market, decisiveness is what clears.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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