Issue 121 - Decisiveness Is Back—But It’s Selective

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Issue 121 – Decisiveness Is Back—But It’s Selective

May 1, 2026

As spring comes into bloom, the real estate market is also blossoming. However, while capital is moving again, it isn’t doing so everywhere. Growth in real estate recently has been selective. The market didn’t stall—it sharpened.

What we’re seeing right now isn’t a broad recovery; it’s a precision market.

Brickunderground recently reported on what transpired in the last quarter, detailing that Manhattan co-op and condo deals above $3 million doubled in the first quarter and the average bonus on Wall Street was up 5 percent in 2025 to $246,900.

Buyers are back post–tax season with clarity, liquidity, and intent—but only for assets that feel inevitable. The days of “good enough” clearing simply because money was cheap are behind us. Today’s buyer is underwriting both lifestyle and downside protection, and if a property doesn’t check both boxes, it’s being left behind.

There is a growing disconnect between what’s available and what’s actually buyable. On paper, inventory has risen. In practice, usable inventory remains tight. The increase is largely driven by product that is either overexposed, aspirationally priced, or simply lacking the level of finish and positioning that today’s market demands. The result is a widening gap between ask and execution—and an average time on market that continues to stretch, often by as much as 60–80 days beyond what we were accustomed to just a few years ago.

At the same time, the top of the market is behaving very differently. Trophy and turnkey properties—particularly those that offer something scarce, whether that’s scale, light, views, or true design integrity—are absorbing demand with far more consistency. In many cases, these deals are happening quietly, often off-market, where sellers and buyers are able to transact without the noise of broader market hesitation. This is where conviction and decisiveness live right now.

According to the Robb Report about the Q1 data, Manhattan’s $10 Million condos are fling off the market. “Trophy-home deals jumped nearly 50 percent in Q1, according to new reports,” Robb Report denotes.

Brickunderground explains, “a record Wall Street bonus pool helped spur a surge in high-end sales.”

Robb Report continues, “A stretch of record-breaking winter storms collided with geopolitical uncertainty and stock market swings, softening overall activity. At the very top of the market, however, it was a different story entirely. Call it a tale of two markets. While much of Manhattan hesitated, the ultra-wealthy kept moving—and in some cases, moving quickly when the right opportunity appeared.”

Luxury real estate is no longer one market—it’s a collection of micro-markets, each behaving on its own timeline. New development in certain corridors continues to face valuation pressure due to supply concentration, while established co-ops and well-positioned resales are holding firmer ground. Unique assets such as full-floor lofts, architecturally significant homes, or anything that cannot be easily replicated, are commanding disproportionate attention. Meanwhile, the “in-between” product is where friction remains most visible.

The most sophisticated buyers understand this dynamic and are leaning into it. They are not waiting for perfect clarity on rates or macro signals. They are identifying where hesitation still exists and using it to their advantage. By the time the market feels broadly “safe” again, the opportunity set will have already shifted.

The numbers agree, “The median Manhattan sales price climbed to $1.285 million, up eight percent year over year,” adds the recent market report from Robb Report.

For sellers, the takeaway is equally clear. Pricing is no longer a strategy; it’s a reflection of positioning. The market will reward properties that are aligned, prepared, and differentiated. Everything else will be tested.

Robb Report sums up what they believe is to come and why: “As spring approaches, more inventory is expected to hit the market, which could ease some of the tension between buyers and sellers. But one thing already feels clear. Manhattan’s wealthiest buyers aren’t waiting around. When the right property comes along, they’re still ready to make a move.”

There is no exodus. There is no freeze. There is simply a market that has become more disciplined.

And in a disciplined market, decisiveness is what clears.

Issue 124 – “The Freeze Heard Across New York”

August 1, 2026

Even those of us who spend most of our days in the world of sales rather than rentals cannot ignore the conversation dominating New York real estate this summer: the city’s newly approved two-year rent freeze on nearly one million rent-stabilized apartments. The decision, fulfilling one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s signature campaign promises, has ignited passionate debate from tenants, landlords, developers, and economists alike.

As Time Magazine recently reported, “’Freeze the rent’ became the definitive rallying cry of Mamdani’s affordability-focused mayoral campaign for New York City, one of the most expensive cities in the world. Despite skepticism that he could actually pull it off, a board he controls made good on his pledge just six months into his term.”

In a 7-1 vote this June, the Rent Guidelines Board approved a rent freeze on one- and two-year leases on rent-stabilized apartments — which, according to the Time article, “make up about 27% of overall NYC housing stock.”

For tenants living in stabilized housing, the appeal is obvious. In a city where affordability persists as one of the defining challenges of our time, freezing rents offers immediate relief and greater certainty in an increasingly pricey environment.

Yet, as is so often the case in New York real estate, the story is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

The New York Post presented the other side of the story, explaining that building owners are grappling with rising operating costs: insurance premiums, labor expenses, property taxes, and capital improvements have all increased substantially.

Critics argue that while the freeze protects tenants in the short term, rising expenses without corresponding rent increases may make it harder, particularly for smaller landlords, to maintain and improve aging buildings.

Rent freezes are not unprecedented. Previous freezes have provided short-term relief for tenants while renewing debates over maintenance, capital improvements, and investment in aging housing stock.

The broader issue is supply. Economists across the political spectrum generally agree that New York’s housing shortage cannot be solved through rent regulation alone. As Vox reported, demand continues to outpace inventory, making new housing production, zoning reform, and development incentives essential.

Although the freeze does not directly affect market-rate apartments, landlords with both stabilized and market-rate units may feel pressure to offset constrained revenue by increasing free-market rents where legally permissible. New York State’s 2024 Good Cause Eviction law, however, limits annual rent increases to the lesser of 10% or the local inflation index.

For buyers, particularly investors considering multifamily assets, the freeze introduces additional uncertainty around future income growth. Buildings with significant rent-stabilized components may trade at lower valuations because purchasers will have to underwrite higher operating costs against stagnant revenue.

For sellers, especially owners of mixed-use or rent-stabilized assets, the challenge becomes demonstrating long-term upside. We may see some owners delay sales, while others bring assets to market sooner out of concern that future regulation could become even more restrictive.

From a residential perspective, one unintended consequence may be increased demand for condominiums and co-ops. When rental policy becomes less predictable, many affluent New Yorkers begin to view ownership as a more stable, controllable alternative.

Foreign investors are unlikely to retreat from purchasing trophy condominiums or prime co-ops, which operate outside the stabilized system. In fact, increased regulation in the rental market could strengthen the appeal of luxury ownership as a store of wealth.

The greater consequence will be on institutional and international investors exploring multifamily acquisitions, where limits on revenue growth coupled with rising operating expenses may prompt some capital to pause, reprice risk, or seek opportunities elsewhere.

A major concern today is that the economics are more challenging than they were a decade ago. The Rent Guidelines Board’s own data shows that operating expenses continue to rise, with insurance costs increasing by more than 10% and overall operating costs rising by more than 5%. The effects will likely be felt most acutely in neighborhoods with large concentrations of rent-stabilized housing, while luxury condominium markets such as Tribeca, SoHo, and much of the West Village, where condominium and market-rate inventory dominate, will experience relatively little direct change.

New York remains one of the most desirable real estate markets in the world. The larger question is whether future housing policy can strike the right balance between protecting tenants and preserving the incentives necessary to maintain and improve the city’s housing stock. Recent reporting suggests that landlords and tenants alike are increasingly worried about the long-term sustainability of that balance.

Perhaps most interesting is what this moment reveals about New York itself. Housing has become far more than an economic issue—it has become a cultural and political one. The debate over rent stabilization reflects larger questions about who gets to stay in the city, who can afford to enter it, and what balance should exist between protecting existing residents and encouraging future investment.

As someone whose business focuses primarily on the sales market, I often remind clients that New York real estate rarely moves in straight lines. Policy shifts ripple through every corner of the market, shaping rental demand, buyer behavior, and investment strategy alike.

Yet what doesn’t change is New York’s capacity to reinvent itself. The conversation around housing will evolve, administrations will change, and policies will come and go. But the city’s enduring challenge — and opportunity — will always be finding ways to be both livable and aspirational.