Issue 100 – The Evolving Cycle of Sales

Just like the seasons change, so do sales cycles. This year, we are seeing a vast diversion from the standard norm in certain areas.

In the past, there were usually very distinct cycles for sales. One could expect a natural slowdown during the summer (from Memorial Day — or at least the end of June — to Labor Day) because that is when folks tend to travel, focus on family, and generally relax and unwind.

After Labor Day and the start of the school season, people would resume their searches and get serious about buying and selling property again. We would see an uptick and frenzy of activity, with listing inventory increasing and serious buyers seeking to snatch up a property, whether to live in themselves or for investment purposes.

Then, once the winter holiday season commenced with Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, and New Year’s celebrations, the sales cycle would likely dip again, only to become frenzied once more right after the new year.

As during summer, this end-of-year holiday period was traditionally a time for family, travel, social activity, or just plain relaxation, with many putting off buying and selling property for those few weeks.

The post-holiday return to work was when many people learned what their bonuses would — or would not — be. This was also when they might receive a portion of the vested stock, which would determine what they would look to buy and invest in. 

Lately, however, we can throw those scenarios right out the window. There no longer seems to be any standard sales cycle at all; lines have blurred. We are seeing far busier summers in terms of buying and selling, and even during the winter holidays, deals are being pushed through. Still, it is nuanced and specific to different price and size segments.

This is neither good nor bad, but those in the sales market need to be aware that what may have been the norm years ago has now changed. We can no longer expect a complete flatline from Memorial Day to Labor Day. These once-slower turndown times are now times of opportunity.

While it is possible to time sales in the summer “off season” to capture buyers who are looking to snatch up “bargains” by racing in while others are away at play, I am instead telling many sellers to take their listings off the market and bring them back on right after summer — depending of course on their location, price segment, and market type. My rationale is that certain types of buyers will not be in the city during these hot summer months. For that market segment, fall will be far more robust.

Sometimes you can even time sales so that summer is surprisingly positive, but given the continuing high mortgage interest rates, that scenario isn’t playing out for the most part this season. Sure, there are some buyers — anomalies — who need to find a place quickly and prefer to buy instead of rent, especially since they might be able to negotiate a good price based on the seller’s anxiety about the market.

My overall takeaway is that there is no one-size-fits-all way to buy and sell right now. Some sellers may initially feel they want to push on during summer, not wanting to miss a prime opportunity to get eager buyers to their doors, while others will sit out from looking during the summer or winter holiday seasons.

Real Estate timing seems to becoming a customized approach — one that can yield well if time correctly.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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