Issue 117 – The Tokenization of 2026

With 2025 behind us, we now have some perspective on how the market is starting to shake out, and we begin to look ahead with some educated ideas of where 2026 may be heading in terms of real estate.

To look back: The year wrapped up with many legislative policy changes. Merrill Lynch’s implementation of tax plans included a mix of permanent extensions of 2017 tax cuts and new, temporary provisions that Governor Hochul and Albany sought to block. There was a lot to digest — and even more to chew on in the coming months.

Standard deductions increased, and in particular, SALT itemized deductions were temporarily raised.

But something even more notable happened: Despite predictions of slowdowns, the NYC real estate market achieved astronomical volumes and sales prices in the typically quieter summer “off-season.” This resilience reflected continued investor confidence in New York as a capitalist hub, even amid the socialist-leaning policies in city government.  

To me, one of the things that sets New York City apart — from many other cities, countries, or regions—is its core capitalist drive. Love it or hate it, it’s a fundamental motivator of human ambition. Think: Darwin’s the survival of the fittest.

What is amazing as well is that anyone from anywhere on the planet can come here and reinvent themselves, building wealth and forging a new identity, including a family legacy. Real estate has proven to be one of the most effective vehicles for generating strong, long-term wealth, so why wouldn’t it also become one of the biggest commodities to trade in the world? Spoiler alert: It has.

I, too, was an immigrant who came to this country with little more than a dream and a drive — which were everything. Like many, I’ve transformed my life through the American Dream, recreating myself in a place with no preconceived history and glass ceiling.

While I can’t predict what will unfold in NYC with our incoming mayor (Zohran Mamdani, who takes office on January 1, 2026), I can emphasize how important the dream of bettering oneself with hard work, gumption, and heart remains. The American Dream should stay at the forefront of all our city and state policies, regardless of who is in office. Whether capitalist or socialist in outlook, countless immigrants like me have come to NYC from far-off places to build something lasting. We have integrated and rallied through periods of discord and disconnection, finding equilibrium in our adopted home.

In a spirited way, these vignettes create a very rich tapestry for the year ahead.

One of the key predictions I see for 2026 is: Gone are the days of “listing gatekeeping.” The ‘Tokenization of 2026’ refers to a widely anticipated inflection point (not tied to a single law or event) in which real-world assets, including real estate, move at scale onto blockchain platforms, functioning like digital securities.

Tokenized assets are traded on open yet regulated (permissioned) platforms, providing qualified buyers with direct access to offerings. As a result, fractional ownership lowers barriers, removing the question of “who can afford it.”

This year favors a broker who can interpret data like an analyst, negotiate like a diplomat, and market property like a tech entrepreneur.

Our buyers expect real-time valuations, AI-powered negotiations, 3D-visualizations that vary by time of day, and predictive due diligence — all before they ever view a property in person. 

In that vein, tokenized title transfer and instant cross-border settlement will speed up transactions. Crypto and other blockchain technologies free transactions from the limitations of “bankers’ hours.” Additionally, fractional ownership makes luxury properties accessible to different forms of acquisition.

The traditional 90-day closing process will become obsolete in 2026. Brokers who are unable to deliver a 10-year ROI, carbon efficiency commentary, or local political risk assessment in under 30 seconds will be left behind. Closing within seven days (or less) will be the new standard; anything lower will be considered outdated. 

Merely keeping pace will be as if you are lagging behind. So, here’s to a dynamic, fast-paced, and prosperous year ahead!

I would like to acknowledge all the people in our sphere who have trusted us with their transactions — some laughing, much learning, and definitely growing together along the way. Each one of you has made a profound impact! Thank you to each deal which has been an opportunity for us to expand and cultivate more knowledge and reach by you. 

As we enter 2026 and beyond, I would like to wish you a meaningful year filled with empathy, momentum, and joy — forward, together.

Issue 125 – The $5 Million Question: What’s Actually Worth Owning in New York Right Now?

The New York real estate market is entering a period where the old rules of valuation are becoming less reliable. Price per square foot and comparable sales still matter, but buyers are weighing those factors differently — rewarding some attributes while quietly discounting others. The question is no longer simply, “What did the apartment downstairs sell for?” It’s “What are buyers willing to pay a premium for now — and what have they stopped paying for?”

I could identify at least seven factors being repriced in Manhattan right now: outdoor space, views/greenery, turnkey condition, monthly carrying costs, new development versus resale, second-home ownership, and the increasingly important distinction between a great apartment and a great building.

Confusing matters for buyers is that the NYC market is sending contradictory signals. Manhattan inventory is changing by price band, mortgage rates remain challenging nationally, and NYC’s new pied-à-terre tax is creating another potential dividing line in how buyers assess ownership costs.  

In the luxury zone, one way to test those shifting valuations is what I call “The $5-Million-Question.”

I can take $5 million and show clients what that buys today in six completely different versions of New York: Think:

  • $5M on Central Park West
  • $5M downtown
  • $5M in Brooklyn
  • $5M in a new development
  • $5M in a great prewar co-op
  • $5M for something compromised but spectacular

Same amount of money. Same city. Radically different value.

The questions to ponder are:

  • Which one would I buy?
  • Which one would I avoid?
  • Which one has the greatest upside?
  • And which one will be easiest to sell five years from now?

That comparison is more revealing than a market-wide statistic because it shows what the same $5 million actually buys — and what it might be worth to the next buyer.

On the surface, the questions are simple. In practice, answering them requires a sophisticated analysis — price per square foot, carrying costs, taxes, liquidity, buyer pool, neighborhood trajectory, architectural quality, and exit strategy. Buyers should seek out an expert broker not only for information but also for interpretation.

For a long time, value was assessed through familiar metrics: price per square foot, comparable sales, neighborhood, floor, light, views, condition, and building pedigree. Those factors still matter. But buyers are now weighing them differently. We are in a repricing phase — not necessarily of New York City as a whole, but of the individual components that define its value.

At Central Park West, $5 million typically trades square footage for permanence: park frontage, architectural significance, scarcity, and long-term stability.

Downtown, the same budget may secure a more contemporary product — larger windows, amenities, and outdoor space — but often at a higher price per square foot and with higher ongoing costs.

In a new development, $5 million buys condition, services, and immediacy. The question is how much of that price reflects a “new development premium,” and whether the resale market will recognize it when the time comes to exit.

In Brooklyn, the same capital can deliver scale, outdoor space, and architectural character that would be significantly more expensive in Manhattan.

None of these is inherently superior. The real questions are: What are you actually buying, and who will want it next? That second part is often underweighted: Which market is offering more rewards?

Based on buyer behavior, several attributes are becoming more defensible:

Light and views are not replicable. While layouts can be changed, exposure and outlook cannot be transformed.

Functional outdoor space is valuable. Usable terraces connected to living areas are materially more valuable than secondary or awkwardly accessed outdoor areas.

Strong floor plans are key. The pandemic reinforced that usability matters as much as size. Proportion, flow, and flexibility are now critical.

Condition has always mattered — now more than ever. High construction costs and uncertainty have increased demand for finished product. However, there is a ceiling — buyers will not indefinitely overpay for someone else’s design choices.

Low carrying friction is persuasive. Taxes, common charges, assessments, and long-term building health are now central to valuation. High monthly costs can materially impact resale liquidity.

Scarcity can be the tipping point. A strong apartment does not need to be perfect. It needs to be difficult to replicate.

So, where would I be most cautious today?

I would be disciplined about paying a premium purely for newness. New does not hold value on its own — architecture, location, and scarcity do. I would closely evaluate buildings where carrying costs are disconnected from underlying asset value. I would avoid trophy pricing unless there is a true trophy attribute. And I would be careful about pricing that is anchored primarily to renovation cost.

A $2 million renovation does not translate into a $2 million increase in value.

The market does not reimburse cost. It prices outcome.

If I were allocating funds at this level, the guiding principles should be: light over finishes, proportion over decoration, irreplaceable views over amenity packages, and ultimately, best-in-class units in proven buildings over average units in trending ones.

The strongest purchases do two things at once: they function as exceptional homes today and remain desirable assets tomorrow. That means thinking about the exit before the entry — and recognizing that New York isn’t one market, but a collection of micro-markets defined by neighborhood, block, building, floor, and orientation.

While real estate is inherently emotional, value is what remains when emotion fades.

Whether the budget is $1 million, $5 million, or $25 million, the question is ultimately the same: What is actually worth owning?

That is the question the next phase of the market will answer — and it will reward analysis over generalization.

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