Issue 88 – The New New York

“What goes up must always come down” – as we step back for a moment, the world is standing witness to staggering historical moments on the global stage. We are all recalibrating how to rationalize and impact this course, but either way, the S&P 500 and the real estate market continue to shock and out-perform with substantial staying power, besides the negative commentary and/or moments currently playing out.

While we have watched the bond market essentially devolve to the negative digits, and then make its way back to black – a valiant effort in its recovery, which in turn has started to stimulate and stabilize the real estate market somewhat, irrespective of the new interest rates. Inflation rose 9.1% in June, the highest inflation in a decade, yet US consumers’ spent 18% more in March 2022 than they did two years earlier, and 12% more than they were forecast to spend based on the pre-COVID-19 trajectory.

All compounded by an hourly wage that fell 1% during this past month, reflecting a 3.6% decrease from a year ago. What does this all add up to for us real estate folks… well?

This is not meant to dishearten, but rather highlight the resiliency of New York City real estate and its staying power. No one anticipated the real estate run-up to be on par with 2014/2015 absorption levels right out of a pandemic. Even with inflation and higher interest rates, according to Miller Samuels, the discount from original asking price decreased from 4% off the original ask price, as compared to a 9% discount the year prior. Transactions over $1 Million only decreased to 43% from 48% a year ago at the same time, and that was during the run-up. The one change that we are noticing is; as buyers ‘take the plunge’ in purchasing, buyers want protections in place and protection has become far more important than it ever has been. 68% of co-op Sales are financed of which 73% are contingent on financing. 51% of condo sales are now financed, of which 65% are contingent on financing. As a broker on the streets, this is the biggest indicator that consumers want to mitigate and hedge against any risk, if they are going to take this step.

Although there has been an adjustment and a ‘malaise’ in the sales market, we are still seeing performance in the luxury sector over $4 Million. Like anything imperfect, it ebbs and flows. As of just last week, we saw 21 contracts signed above $4 Million, 5 more than the previous week, and condos outsold co-ops 14 to 3.

We have seen mortgage rates begin to stabilize, albeit not to last year’s levels, but overall people are starting to ‘tolerate’ the new norm as it relates to rates. What we have also noticed is that people are still prepared to come and park cash in New York City, contrary to popular gossip. Recovery and performance is what drives investment. Real Estate in New York always outperforms both for end-user, investors alike. According to McKinsey & Company, the latest Consumer Pulse survey shows that, across America, people have simultaneously embraced new behaviors and reverted to old ones. What will they do next?


The average rent in New York City is now at an all-time high, with the median rent price at $4,000 per month, and the average rent at $5,058. Rents are up 40% YoY. New York City rent has only just continued to skyrocket, with studios hitting a whopping $4,000 a month as well. A STUDIO?! Renters need to earn upwards of $165,000 to even be considered to be in a position to rent, and must reflect 45 times the asking rent in their account post lease-signing, Yes, that’s right, 45 times! Most rental inventory does not last longer than 7 days on the market currently. It’s clear this isn’t stopping anybody from wanting in!

Further, the “standard” broker fee averaging 13-15% of the annual rent is infuriating potential renters, and my way of saying that this signifies a red hot rental market with no signs of slowing down. Although rental prices are increasing 40% YoY and competition is fierce – an overlooked silver lining here is that at some point we say enough.

For this type of rent hype, folks are saying, ‘I might as well own equity”. The inventory for prospective buyers is tight right now, but given the overall capitulation of the sales market over these past several months, it has become an appetizing option, EVEN with higher interest rates.

So what’s next…?

The property inventory shortage has been a problem, both during and post pandemic. As we wrapped up Q2 this year, although property sales dropped by 30% from the first quarter, we are now seeing an uptick in demand due to that shortage.

Clearly, the June 15th interest rate hike of .75% (the third hike this year), the largest hike since 1994 did not help matters. So, why is traction still happening? There are those that are itching to take advantage of a market that is still not perfect. Seeking to get out of throwing away significant money on fierce rental prices and are hoping to actually grab a bite of the apple by finally being able to pull the trigger on purchasing. Ultimately, people still need a home to live in, desire upgrading when they can, and have demands of a growing family.

With the discussion of an inevitable recession on the horizon, we still need to remind ourselves that it’s still business as usual. Rising rates are not intimidating the city that never sleeps, sale prices are adjusting to offset the increased interest rates. This is creating room to cultivate a new norm in a new market. Whether it is a new Mayor, or a new vote in November, New Yorkers take full advantage of capitalizing on the commodity of space that only this city has to offer!

Let’s see what next quarter brings to the equation.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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