Issue 97 – The Infusion of Volatility Lends to a Potential Wholesale Market

Now may very well be the time that the real estate market has capitulated to a level of offering “wholesale” prices for luxury products. To emerge victorious, a savvy buyer will need to approach this market strategically. Being mindful may mean going against the grain, and anyone asking themselves, “Now or later?” should explore all facets of the market to make a truly informed decision. Let’s look at all the variables that could play out and are impacting real estate today and possibly well into this summer, which could become one of the most advantageous timings to dive in.

I believe the main elements that will influence the real estate market in the coming months are the upcoming national election, continued inflation, and rates. Additionally, let’s not forget the backdrop of the stock market. If it continues to rally, brighter skies are ahead!

There’s a lot to keep track of. Rates are going to be watched like a hawk—the 10-year treasury yield was up 7.8% at the end of April—and a June reduction based on the Fed’s declaration is anticipated. This would make for much momentum this summer. Conversely, if this doesn’t happen, we will most likely see movement delayed.

Inflation has essentially slowed everything: food, the cost of dining out, flights, rent, gas, and, of course, housing purchases. This has immobilized much of the country’s fluidity of living.

Not to mention, there is the backdrop of a potential war that is impacting to New York City, given it houses the largest Jewish population outside of Israel. Although global unrest can make people hesitant about jumping into the sales market, the reality is we are seeing the market rally regardless of this conflict. According to a recent CNBC segment, it appears war is not necessarily bad for the economy: “Historically, geopolitical shocks cause short-term volatility, not long-term market declines,” said Emily Bowersock Hill, CEO of Bowersock Capital Partners.

All this strife is further compounded by staggering statistics highlighting havoc related to our youth. According to a study by Statista, nearly 20% of young men (ages 25 to 34) who are living at home, based on the cost of living, can no longer afford their rent. CBS reiterates this, citing a recent Harris Poll that showed “roughly 45% of people ages 18 to 29 are living at home with their families—the highest figure since the 1940s.” Over 60% of Gen-Zer’s and millennials reported moving back home in the past two years.

Additionally, it’s reported (read: Sibling Society by Robert Bly) via a study completed by Pew Research that young men are not having intimate relationships, which is impacting their self-esteem and their ability to feel agency in their lives. Many do not think they are functioning as productive members of society. Psychology Today reports this study indicates that over 60% of young men are currently single, and sexual intimacy is at a 30-year low across genders.

These factors relate to real estate because they may be the catalyst for parents buying property for their children to troubleshoot the issues. To reiterate: According to NBC News, we are seeing a spike in parents buying for their children. Likewise, according to a National Association of Realtors report at the end of 2023, almost 25% of homebuyers ages 22 to 30 reported that cash gifts from family and friends were a source of their down payments. Now, consider others who were gifted properties purchased outright in all-cash deals, and the percentage is even higher!

This is a long-winded way of saying that inflation has a huge impact on the socio-economic and social aspects of our culture. It is a very big deal.

Another factor to look at is inventory, which is still tight. Obviously, nobody wants to give up a 2.5% interest rate to take advantage of 6.8%-plus right now, but those rates will change. You can always refinance your rate but can’t refinance your purchase price. Buying real estate right now would essentially be buying wholesale. While the entry market is still very tight, the luxury market is moving, and people are taking full advantage of that “wholesale” opportunity. What is asking $18 million is trading at $15 million.

The real indicator of optimism is movement in the co-op market, which tells me that people are feeling somewhat copacetic again regarding their liquidity. Co-ops tend to have a much more stringent vetting process, which requires a specific post-closing liquidity to be reflected and their debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to be below a certain threshold.

Buyers tend to be strategic about where they are pulling these additional funds from to subsidize post-closing liquidity requirements. This is especially true for most parents who are pulling funds to help their young working children or young married couples get their first leg into ownership. They can apply the interest from past investments toward a down payment in a co-op if there is a nice surplus. In this scenario, we are seeing an uptick, which means people are seeing the inherent value in pricing for quality locations that hold weight based on school migration and acceptance; also, they can now make the numbers work.

And then, of course, the big cherry on top is that an election year infuses even more volatility. Risk-averse people tend to wait to see how the election will play out before jumping into the real estate market. So, some may stay static during the summer but will be poised to jump at the end of autumn after we know the results.

As the year progresses, many of our big questions will be answered, and the real estate market may display more stability. It’s impossible to know for sure how it will all shake out, but I believe this summer will be a good time for the savvy and intrepid to take advantage of the opportunity to get more for their money.

Issue 122 – Foreign Demand Re-Emerges as Luxury Buyers Underwrite Political Risk

As we head into summer, we are seeing a very notable resurgence of international buyers entering the New York market — and frankly, in a way we haven’t seen in years.

Let’s explore why.

Historically, global capital gravitates toward stability, discretion, and internationally recognized assets. In New York City, that typically translates to park-facing residences, trophy properties, and globally recognizable “name-brand” buildings. These include Aman, Four Seasons, Related developments, and legacy Park Avenue or Central Park South product with strong service infrastructure and long-term value preservation.

Right now, buyers are looking for quality, security, and assets that feel insulated in uncertain times. NYC, despite all the headlines, remains a strong, long-term store of value internationally.

When there is instability abroad, New York City benefits. It offers legal transparency, deep liquidity, world-class education, finance, culture, and healthcare — and a real estate market that, while imperfect, is still well understood around the world.

What’s different now is that buyers are not necessarily purchasing because they think New York is “hot.” They are buying because New York is established. That is an important distinction: the capital is less speculative and more preservation-oriented. For many international families, a New York apartment is part lifestyle asset, part hedge, part legacy planning.

The headlines about wealthy buyers fleeing New York City are often too simplistic. Yes, some buyers have moved capital to Florida, Texas, or other lower-tax markets. But that does not mean New York has lost its global relevance.

The newly announced pied-a-terre/second-home tax in New York targets luxury second homes valued at $5 million or more, with the goal of creating an annual surcharge on non-primary residences. This proposal is certainly something international buyers are paying attention to, though it remains to be seen if this will impact continued investment. Rather than eliminating foreign demand, the tax likely makes buyers more selective, becoming part of the broader cost-of-ownership analysis alongside the mansion tax, carrying costs, and currency exposure. It may create pause around marginal purchases, but for a trophy asset, it won’t stop the buyer. It simply raises the bar for what feels worth owning.

The concern is less the dollar amount itself and more the perception. International buyers are highly sensitive to whether a market feels welcoming, predictable, and stable. Policy often moves perception before it moves fundamentals.

We’re consistently seeing foreign buyers generally gravitate toward turnkey product. The appetite for renovation or operational complexity is far lower than it once was. Buyers want ease, service, security, and a property that immediately translates internationally, both from a branding and lifestyle standpoint. For these global buyers, New York remains one of the few carrying both emotional and financial prestige.

Enter: Japanese buyers. The Real Deal recently reported a massive resurgence in Japanese capital, providing a lifeline to aging multifamily walk-ups. “Japan-linked firms have acquired at least $2.1 billion worth of New York City property since the start of 2024, according to analysis by Okada & Company and TRD Data,” the piece details.

This surge is driven by a stark yield gap: With low interest rates at home, Japanese buyers can borrow cheaply in Japan to acquire higher-yielding assets, a strategy supercharged by domestic tax incentives for multi-family purchases.

We are also seeing diversifying residential demand from Australian, Brazilian, Taiwanese, and Western Europe buyers. Eastern European activity is still highly selective compared to prior cycles, but international demand as a whole has undeniably re-entered the market. The usual suspects — such as Central Park South, Tribeca, Billionaire’s Row, and select Downtown properties — remain the primary anchors.

Target price points for these foreign investors vary by country of origin and the purchase’s purpose, with the most active international demand falling into clear segments:.

The serious lifestyle buyer ($3M to $7M): Typically targets a strong two or three bedrooms in a premier building, prioritizing service, security, and an easy lock-and-leave lifestyle.

The wealth-preservation buyer ($7M to $15M+): Focuses heavily on blue-chip locations — Central Park, Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue, Tribeca, Billionaires’ Row — or globally recognized branded residences.

The ultra-high-net-worth buyer: Prioritizes the asset above any price point, focusing on scarcity, pedigree, privacy, views, service, and long-term relevance. They are not asking, “Is this affordable?” They are asking, “Will this matter 10 years from now?”

Today’s foreign buyer is much more disciplined. They want turnkey and certainty. They want building quality, service quality, financial stability, and a residence that translates globally.

The biggest shift is that foreign buyers are not chasing the market — they are underwriting it. They are asking better questions: What are the monthly carrying costs? Who is the resale audience? How strong is the building financially? How liquid is this asset? Does this location hold value in multiple cycles?

Overall, cultural nuance matters more than ever. Buyers are underwriting not just the apartment, but NYC itself.

Five years ago, there was still more appetite for optionality — buyers were more willing to consider renovation, new development premiums, or speculative upside.

On the Japanese side specifically, what I’m noticing is a renewed comfort level with NYC real estate as a legacy asset class. The buyers I’m seeing tend to be highly analytical, long-term focused, and extremely quality-driven. They’re not chasing hype — they’re buying permanence.

The Brazilian and Australian buyers we’re seeing tend to be incredibly lifestyle-oriented while still highly aware of long-term value, whereas many Western European buyers continue to prioritize pedigree buildings, architecture, privacy, and stability. Taiwanese buyers similarly appear very focused on security, quality, and established global positioning.

For foreign investors, New York City still represents something very specific: legal stability, cultural prestige, liquidity, access, education, healthcare, and global identity. The buyers I’m seeing are not ignoring the headlines. They are simply looking past them when the asset is strong enough.

New York is no longer a market where everything trades easily. It is a precision market. But for the right property — the right building, the right view, the right service, the right location — foreign buyers are still very much there.

The common denominator across almost all of them is that they are buying selectively — but decisively — when the product feels globally relevant.

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