Issue 102 – Fall Real Estate Market Forecast: Bright Prospects Ahead Amid Anticipated Rate Drops

It’s that lovely time again: The leaves are falling; interest rates are falling… Autumn is in the air.

As we head into pumpkin spice and sweater weather, it’s time to look ahead and see how the rest of the year might play out in terms of real estate.

Along with the season’s first chill began to fall upon us, we saw some positive impact on mortgage rates in mid-September — a nice sharp decline in recent months, reflecting growing odds on a lower Fed fund rate soon.

Also at that time, the buzz had been that the fall market would to be predicated on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and whether it would have any additional positive impact on mortgage rates. The Fed rate doesn’t necessarily guarantee lower mortgage rates, however; in fact, the information released on September 18th could have caused tremendous upheaval.

Ultimately, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.50% rather than the anticipated 0.25% — but the bond market lost ground, at least initially. There are two potential reasons for this: the dot plot, a chart that records each Fed official’s projection for the central bank’s key short-term interest rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Hayden “Jay” Powell’s press conference. The dot plot left bonds in slightly better shape, but not so Powell’s proposal, which failed to show visible concern about the labor market and stayed clear of declaring victory on inflation.

Combine all that with a bond market that had been in a relatively aggressive position heading into “Fed Day,” and the moderately weaker closing levels are about as boring and logical a result as anyone could imagine.

Time will tell how the Fed’s punting goes for buyers who will continue to go against the grain given the opportunity rush — an approach that may still be well worth taking.

Regardless, downtown continues to rally very well in contrast to uptown. This is predominantly due to the number of condos available that allow for income-producing investments and pied-à- terre products suitable for young professionals sans families.

Co-ops are still struggling to hold footing, with only four co-ops versus 21 condos trading over $4M in September. This phenomenon stems primarily because co-ops tend to have a negative connotation with less ownership control, less privacy, and more stringent financial disclosure requirements, which can be intimidating and off-putting for anyone struggling to recover from job loss, student debt, and business bankruptcy. Even if these are solvent ways to remediate toxic situations, they can be deemed blemishes.

The good news for buyers is that now is likely one of the most incredible times to get value for a large, serious property. It is also a very advantageous time to upgrade and take possession of a bigger unit. For example, buyers pushing for a one bedroom might be able to nab a two-bedroom place for the same price.

For sellers, given the lack of inventory, newer inventory that is in excellent condition (or priced smartly) and positioned cleverly can garner a lot of traction from an otherwise lackluster market in a short window of time. We are seeing value products that are well-finished, with good components, fetch more than one offer and go to a best-and-final offer, resulting in a higher trade price than some lesser comparable units.

Meanwhile, all eyes will remain on the election, although, as mentioned in a previous newsletter, some people will be wary of change regardless of which party wins.

As fall turns into winter, many pending questions will finally be answered — Who is the new president? What will interest rates be? — and while that won’t be a cure-all for all doubt, it may appease some fears of the unknown as we head into the new year.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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