Issue 85 – It’s No Secret That Wall Street Has Been Shaken By Volatility

As the conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, its far-reaching financial consequences are becoming more apparent. We have now seen the Dow record its fourth consecutive week of losses amid fresh worries about the global economy while oil prices have shot up to nearly $130 per barrel, 57% higher than the start of the year. If oil continues to soar, it will be debilitating for airlines to maintain fares. Sanctions imposed on Russian banks by western powers have pushed the Ruble to zero while the US dollar has jumped to its highest value point in almost 2 years. While a strong dollar is good, it is hard to predict the effect sanctions will have on the US, especially if you consider that they will keep approximately $1 trillion in Russian assets from flowing through US markets.

If all that were not enough, the Federal Reserve is still contending with crippling inflation. To put things into perspective, the Federal Reserve sets a 2% inflation target each year to help businesses plan and maintain prices. Right now industries such as furniture, bedding, and food are experiencing inflation rates over 20%. The Fed’s plan to mitigate this involves raising interest rates in a number of key markets this month, a measure that hasn’t been taken since 2015. Singapore just raised their stamp duty for the first time from 20% to 30% on property sales. It seems to be a “theme”.

Even though the Fed does not “ raise” mortgage rates, they raise the federal funds rate which then can in turn impact mortgage yields and lending from banks. Real estate once again can offer very important protection an “Inflation hedge” – when inflation takes place – property diversification becomes a hedge to inflation. Especially if one is achieving a high rental income.

Hard assets need to go up in order for this hedge to maintain. When there is U.S inflation at times it can outperform the stock market in today’s uncertain world.

In a turn for the better, some 678,000 jobs were added to the US economy in February, and the unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.8%, a strong signal the economy is gaining steam after a slow start to the year – so know that it’s not all gloom, despite what the headlines say.

What does this confusing picture mean for the US real estate market? There may be one immediate silver lining. If the stock market continues to slide, the Federal Reserve might delay raising interest rates, which would impact mortgage yields. In an already competitive housing market, that would be good news for younger and first-time buyers who would not be saddled with steep rates.

More broadly, with so much uncertainty, property is looking like a more compelling opportunity as it provides the verification from stock markets it has a benefit of being able to be a place where people can actually live in and perform of a time – it can be an income producing property which hedges against inflation and act as a safe harbor. Just as it has for decades, real estate can once again offer very important protection and attractive returns during times like this. New York City’s housing market has already returned to its pre-Covid glory and competition is high. Time and again, this city’s housing market has proven that it is not subject to the same extreme highs and lows of traditional stock investments, making it a flight to safety given the volatility in risk assets.

After all, humans seek safety in shelter. At times of uncertainty, it is our instinct to want to be home with loved ones. During the global pandemic, we saw our homes turn into offices, gyms – essentially, our livelihoods. We rediscovered the value and importance of our humble abode.

While a war continues in Europe and poses a different set of challenges, the diversification into real estate given inflation fears can provide a utility value. Staying in our homes will likely become the new going out as consumers avoid the 25%+ inflation rates seen in the food industry. For investors, this would provide stable cash flow if rented out.

The post-Covid surge of demand combined with recent global turmoil can be off-putting for buyers, but it should not deter from seeking smart investment. Having money allocated into property rather than just in banking institutions or investment portfolios can be one of the best option as we wait to see how else this conflict may further impact the global economy.

Issue 123 – The NYC Pied-à-Terre Tax and its Implications on the Real Estate Market

Lately, we have been hearing the slogan “Tax the Rich” frequently. This is often espoused in reference to the newly implemented pied-à-terre tax in NYC.

It implies the rich aren’t paying taxes. The reality is quite different. Yes, there are some very wealthy people who pay far less in taxes than others earning the same or similar amounts. But New York City taxpayers pay the most local taxes in all of the U.S. The laws that need to be addressed are federal ones, not local. The loopholes touted are affecting just a select few, when in reality most high-net-worth folks are indeed paying a lot of taxes — especially New Yorkers, who pay $21 billion more to the state every year than the state spends on NYC.

The latest controversy stems from New York City’s enactment of a pied-à-terre tax—an annual surcharge on high-value homes that are not used as a primary residence. If you own a luxury second home in the city, you may now have a recurring tax exposure on top of other friction costs. The tax is also an annual recurring fee, not a one-time hit like the mansion or transfer tax, which makes it more pervasive.

According to a recent report by the NYC Comptroller, the legislation is expected to phase in from July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2028 (fiscal years 2026—2028), with the first phase focused on city “market value” thresholds. Early reporting indicates that the tax applies broadly to high-end second homes and provides different treatment for single-family homes versus co-ops and condos. For houses valued at roughly $5 million or more, the surcharge has been reported at 0.8%–1.3%. For co-ops and condos, the initial phase appears tied to Department of Finance values starting around $1 million, which can translate into a much higher market sale price.

I am seeing a lot of confusion about how this will be implemented. Essentially, people believe that any sales price over $5 million will be affected, when in fact Phase 1 will be based on land value, not the transactional equivalent sale price. For example, a property valued at $844,000 may not be captured by the pied-à-terre tax. It’s less than $1 million and nowhere near $5 million.

However, Phase 2 (for fiscal years 2028–2031, beginning July 1, 2028) becomes a much more speculative concern. Early indications suggest that the tax will be based on the more transactional side of things. It may even work on factoring a five-year average; we simply don’t know yet.

Some savvy buyers are trying to close before Phase 1 starts. Others are trying to keep their price below $5 million and then essentially work any credits as a side agreement to avoid the potential second-phase hit.

As Business Insider reported, “In its first two years, the tax will rely on Department of Finance ‘assessed values’ to determine which homes will face a new charge, while the city and state work out a new valuation system.”

Likewise, a recent CNBC segment details: “Billionaire and Citadel CEO Ken Griffin became the face of the tax after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani posted a video in front of Griffin’s penthouse apartment announcing the tax.”

I believe the pied-à-terre tax punishes people who use our services less than full-time residents. They also pay massive transfer and mansion taxes and typically don’t use our schools — a huge portion of real estate tax revenues.

My view is that this will not destroy the New York market, but it will absolutely change behavior at the margins. Buyers are already more sensitive to carrying costs, monthly common charges, assessments, the mansion tax, financing costs, and now an additional annual second-home tax. The psychological impact may be just as important as the financial one.

The highest end of the market will feel this first. For discretionary buyers, especially those comparing NYC to Palm Beach, Miami, Aspen, London, or other global luxury markets, this becomes another line item in the decision-making process. It may not stop a true New York buyer, but it may slow them down, sharpen their negotiations, or push them toward renting instead of buying.

As a result, I expect high-end rentals to benefit. A buyer who wants a New York City presence but does not want the tax complexity may choose to rent a trophy apartment instead. That could strengthen demand for luxury rentals, especially furnished, turnkey, white-glove inventory.

For co-ops, the impact may be more nuanced. Co-ops already have a smaller buyer pool because of board scrutiny, financing restrictions, and liquidity requirements. If the tax makes second-home buyers more cautious, certain high-end co-ops may feel additional pressure, especially those with significant monthly maintenance or less flexible sublet policies. That said, as I always point out, the very best buildings with scarcity, provenance, service, and location will still hold value.

I have not yet seen a wave of people selling solely because of this tax, but I have absolutely seen buyers pause, ask sharper questions, and reconsider the total cost of ownership. The conversation has shifted from “What is the purchase price?” to “What is my all-in annual exposure?”

Other markets have tried versions of second-home or vacancy-style taxes, with mixed results. In some places, they created revenue and pushed underused housing back into circulation. In others, they caused buyers to become more cautious or redirected capital elsewhere. New York is different because it remains New York — but the city cannot assume that capital is captive.

Again, citing Business Insider, “Hochul and Mamdani estimated the tax could raise $500 million.”

So, are there any benefits? Potentially. If the revenue is used responsibly, it could support city services and housing priorities. It may also create a clearer distinction between end-user demand and purely discretionary ownership. But from a market perspective, the risk is that it adds friction at a time when the luxury buyer is already highly selective.

My advice to second-home buyers is simple: do not overreact, but underwrite carefully. Understand whether the property will be classified as a primary residence or pied-à-terre. Review the building’s carrying costs, taxes, assessments, liquidity requirements, and resale profile. Buy quality, buy scarcity, and buy something you would be comfortable owning through a softer market.

It’s important to keep all in perspective: Mayors come and go, and when you start impacting the very hands that feed you in one of the most capitalistic cities that ripple through the nation, I think we stand the test of time on how we are going to navigate this.

The New York City buyer is not disappearing. But the casual, optional buyer now has one more reason to pause — and in this market, that matters.

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